Income from Australian resources and energy exports will continue retreat from historical highs over the coming two years amid the fallout over global trade tensions and conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine.
But the gold industry is booming as the commodity fetches record prices. And exploration expenditure for iron ore - Australia's largest export earner - is continuing to increase.
The June 2025 Resources and Energy Quarterly, published by the Department of Industry, Science and Resources, forecasts export earnings to decline to $369 billion in 2025-26 and then $352 billion 2026-27, down from an estimated $385 billion in 2024-25.
The data is consistent with the outlook in the March Resources and Energy Quarterly.
Minister for Resources and Northern Australia Madeleine King said despite the lower revenue, export volumes are forecast to increase marginally over the next two years and to continue to support jobs and Australia's economy.
"The latest Resources and Energy Quarterly underlines how Australia remains a trusted a reliable supplier or resources and energy to the world at a time of ongoing global uncertainty," Minister King said.
"While global commodity prices are easing, the report suggests Australian resources companies will continue to remain competitive on the global stage.
"Higher prices for gold, and forecast higher copper and lithium exports, are partly offsetting the impact of lower prices for iron ore, coal and LNG."
On the back of higher prices, gold is set to be Australia's third largest resources and energy export earner behind iron ore and LNG next year, with export earnings forecast to reach $56 billion before prices ease into 2027.
"The Australian government continues to support our resources and energy sectors," Minister King said.
"We have invested $3.4 billion in the Resourcing Australia's Prosperity initiative to provide the geoscience that is foundational to our resources sector, and we have legislated $7 billion worth of production tax credits to strengthen domestic critical minerals processing and help Australia and the world achieve net zero by 2050."
The June 2025 edition of the Resources and Energy Quarterly is available on the Department of Industry, Science and Resources website.
