Greens Predict PM Luxon's Claims

The Green Party has correctly predicted the facts and data that would be needed to set the record straight on the Prime Ministers claims three days ahead of his State of the Nation speech today.

Below is the media release and facts which detail the Green Party's correct predictions for what the Prime Minister would attempt to assert today. This information was sent to media on Friday 16th of January.

"The Green Party has prepared some facts and data for journalists covering the Prime Minister's speech on Monday 19^th January.

Below and attached as a PDF, you'll find a range of likely lines that will appear in his speech, and the data you need to hold him and the National Party to account."

The Prime Minister's 'setting the scene for election year' speech: what he'll say and why he is wrong

1. The economy has turned the corner - we will see growth this year

• In December, Treasury revealed that GDP in 2025 is the lowest it's been in over 10 years.

• Not only that, we are set to see the highest number of unemployed since 1994.

• According to HYEFU, growth for 2025 was 1.1%, which is 0.3% less than projected in BEFU 2025 and 1.6% less than HYEFU 2024 (a year ago). During Luxon's failed "year of growth" we saw constant downwards revisions in GDP.

• It's all very well to say that there are green shoots, but the reality is this Government's slash and burn of the investment needed to develop our economy has resulted in thousands of young talented NZers heading overseas, and the highest number of unemployed since 1994.

• Treasury's own advice at HYEFU said that "economic activity has fallen more quickly than it did following the Global Financial Crisis in the late 2000s" -this Government has mismanaged the economy in comparison to its predecessors.

• Under Christopher Luxon's watch, and due to his decisions, per capita GDP fell 5.0% from its peak in 2022-compared with a fall of 3.9% over the 2008-9 period.

• Despite some positive indications in the QSBO, there is continued weak demand in sectors such as construction who are impacted by cuts to Government investment in infrastructure development. Business confidence might be rising slightly however we are not necessarily seeing this translate into the demand we need, due to New Zealand consumers and businesses being reticent to invest-retail sales are still down. This, ultimately, stems from the Government slashing vital investment in infrastructure, economic development, and public services-the very things we need to build productivity and prosperity for all of us.

2. Our fiscal discipline means we have got on top of inflation saving kiwis $

• Much of the inflation we saw driving high cost rises for New Zealanders was due to shifts and uncertainty overseas due to COVID and increasing global instability. The Government's reliance on the blunt tool of monetary policy, refusing to use the fiscal tools in its tool box, has resulted in record numbers of unemployed NZers-with inflation for the things NZers need to live like energy and food not decreasing significantly.

• The Government's overcorrection has resulted in a slash and burn of the investment we need to develop our economy for our communities, and our future economic wellbeing. The Government has been waiting for the private sector to pick up the slack which has not yet eventuated.

• The Minister of Finance's recommitted $2.4b allowances are below what Treasury said was necessary just to keep the lights on. Due to the failure of the Government's growth strategy, it will have to borrow more, as New Zealanders get less and less.

• The Government likes to fixate on so-called 'fiscal discipline,' while ignoring the indicators that it is undermining our real economic capacity and the impacts on everyday NZers. E.g. its existing pre-commitments mean there is only $1 billion per year, on average, left to be allocated from the operating allowance for Budget 2026. Due to reduced revenue forecasts, due to weakened economic activity, this will mean further cuts to the public services New Zealanders need. And it's the everyday New Zealanders who will be the ones feeling the real impact-and shouldering the true costs-of this Government's failed economic strategy.

3. The reason we have had such a bad down-turn is because the last government left the economy/govt books in such bad shape

• The Government is now in its third year of governing-it cannot keep going back to the previous Government to blame for it taking its hands off the wheel.

• The previous Government ensured that NZers had access to jobs, during a period of extreme instability-due to its considered use of internationally sustainable levels of government debt to fund investment, which, as with many other countries post-COVID would have likely resulted in a return to more stable economic conditions faster than under Luxon's Govt.

• The Government's myopic version of 'fiscal discipline' and kneejerk response to the actions of the previous Government has resulted in it cutting costs and forcing New Zealanders to shoulder the burden of these costs-- Everyday, New Zealanders are forking out more for:

• prescription fees and visits to the doctor,

• children's bus fares,

• power bills,

• upfront costs for childcare due to the failed FamilyBoost policy,

• It's a capital allowance of $3.5b in the face of a $210b infrastructure crisis. It's construction sector activity at six-year low, with 16,000 jobs lost in past two years alone, while the Government slashes $45b worth of Government infrastructure spending.

4. We are making record investments in health and education - this isn't an austerity govt.

Health:

• The Treasury's own analysis shows the cost pressures as a result of this Government's austerity approach. Right now, $5.6b in critical services, including health, are unfunded. The Government's self-imposed fiscal straitjacket isn't even enough to keep the lights on.

• The Government has no right to celebrate their spending on our health system while it suffers from their austerity.

• The experiences of patients trying to access care, and the nurses, doctors, allied health professionals and others working to provide care, show a system under unsustainable pressure.

• Patients have died in the Rotorua Hospital waiting room, Christchurch Emergency Department corridors, the Middlemore Hospital waiting room, and Gisborne Hospital, all in unsafe staffing conditions. This Government has effectively put a hiring freeze on nurses, while its own data show some wards are falling short of safe staffing levels for more than 90 percent of shifts.

Education

• Investment in early childhood education for Budget 2025 was a meagre 0.5 percent increase, while inflation was at 2.5 percent. This isn't enough to meet rising costs for community ECE groups, and it will cost kiwi whānau.

• Further, the Government's Family Boost scheme has been a flop - private, for profit businesses that make up the sector have taken the opportunity to increase their fees by almost 7 percent, eating into the limited rebate families can access. Running early childhood education for profit isn't working. It's time to flip the system on its head.

• In schooling, David Seymour's charter schools are leeching off the education budget, with $10m budgeted for just seven schools with 215 kids enrolled in them. Per student, they are receiving five times as much as kids in the state school system.

5. Our actions have led to crime coming down

• Crime data is complex, and it is not clear at all that there are fewer victims of violent crime, as the government has been trumpeting The Beehive is lauding a big drop in violent crime. But what do the stats really say? | The Spinoff

• The drop in the number of victims of violent crime under Luxon's watch started well before any of his key law-and-order policies - Three Strikes, legislation cracking down on gangs, sentencing reforms - took effect. Why violent crime is up 7% and down 21% - Derek Cheng

• In terms of youth crime and the infamous ram-raids, the claims from the government that their actions are leading to the decline in ram raids doesn't stack up. This graph shows that ram raids were starting to drop off before the government changed and well before any law changes came into effect. Effective policing or fading social media trend? The rise and fall of ram raids | RNZ News

[Image of graph provided from RNZ. See: "Police data shows reports of ram raid style burglaries peaking in August 2022 - with 86 incidents that month - and receding in the following years. Photo: Police/Supplied"]

6. Student achievement is improving thanks to our curriculum changes - for instance look at the impact of structured literacy on reading.

• Overall the curriculum changes have not been embedded and it is far too early to see an impact. The Structured Literacy approach has only been in place since 2024.

• The phonics test that the Minister is excited about is a 40 word test for how well children sound out words, it is not about reading or understanding.

• The improved results in term 3 were not testing the same children as they tested earlier. If the government wants to show success it needs to:

• Use matched cohorts tracking the same children over time

• Include participation data that is consistent with overall demographics and not skewed

• Use tests that also look at reading comprehension and writing.