- Management of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has approved the First Review of the Staff-Monitored Program (SMP) with Mali.
- Program implementation has been broadly satisfactory amid a challenging environment, with the authorities achieving nearly all quantitative and indicatives targets and steadily advancing the reform agenda.
- Mali faced significant headwinds in 2025, including fuel supply disruptions caused by terrorist attacks, and reduced gold production, leading to a slowdown in economic growth. Economic activity is projected to recover starting next year.
Washington, DC: Management of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) approved on December 15, 2025 the first review of Mali's Staff Monitored Program (SMP). The 11-months SMP, approved in March 2025, aims to ensure fiscal sustainability, strengthen governance and public financial management, and protect the most vulnerable. SMPs are agreements between member countries and IMF staff to monitor the member country's economic program and re-establish a track record of reform implementation that could pave the way for financial assistance from the Fund under the Upper Credit Tranche (UCT).
Mali has faced significant challenges in 2025. Recent security-related disruptions to fuel supply have limited economic activity and mobility across the country. In addition, lower gold production, recurrent power outages, and reduced development and humanitarian assistance have further weighed on the economy. Many of these economic headwinds are likely to persist in the coming months. As a result, growth is projected to slow to 4.1 percent in 2025, and inflation is expected to be near 3 percent.
Despite these challenges, program implementation under the SMP has been broadly satisfactory. The authorities met almost all quantitative and indicative targets for end-September and achieved all structural benchmarks. They remain committed to the transparent use of the IMF's April 2025 Rapid Credit Facility disbursement and have published the first quarterly report on the use of these resources, along with detailed procurement information —including selection processes and beneficial ownership.
The economy is expected to start to recover in 2026, supported by a pickup in gold production and a gradual improvement in security situations. GDP growth is forecast to reach 5.5 percent in 2026, while inflation should ease to 2.5 percent. However, significant downside risks persist.
Fiscal policy remains appropriate but is constrained by the difficult security environment and limited external financing. The draft 2026 budget envisages a fiscal deficit within the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) 3-percent-of-GDP criterion, underpinned by strong domestic revenue mobilization efforts and prudent control of current spending. Nonetheless, fiscal space remains constrained due to security challenges, limited budget support and high debt-service obligations.
In the current context, an immediate priority is resolving fuel supply disruptions to help stabilize economic activity and ease pressures on households and businesses. Looking ahead, the SMP will continue to support the authorities in implementing a prudent fiscal policy to safeguard sustainability amid challenging financing conditions and high borrowing costs. Other reform priorities include broadening the tax base and strengthening tax and customs administration, improving the efficiency of public spending, addressing vulnerabilities in state-owned enterprises, and preserving space for public investment and protection of vulnerable households.
