Washington, DC: The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded the Article IV consultation [1] with Mali on July 30, 2025. The authorities need more time to consider the publication of the Staff Report prepared for this consultation [2].
Mali's economy has shown some resilience despite significant headwinds. Economic growth is expected to reach 5 percent in 2025, supported by strong agricultural production, the start of lithium extraction and continued growth in services. However, the decrease in foreign aid, lower gold production and the shutdown of the largest mine weigh negatively on the outlook. Contingent on mining activities returning to normal levels, growth is expected to rebound to 5.4 percent in 2026. The fiscal deficit is forecast to widen to 3.4 percent in 2025, driven in part by government spending to mitigate the impact of the flooding. However, the outlook remains uncertain, with considerable downside risks.
Fiscal policy should prioritize achieving fiscal sustainability, particularly by converging toward WAEMU's 3 percent of GDP fiscal deficit ceiling. Key priorities include strengthening domestic revenue mobilization through broadening the tax base and strengthening revenue and customs administration. Moreover, the authorities are encouraged to improve spending efficiency while safeguarding public investment and protecting vulnerable households.
Reducing domestic policy uncertainty and advancing structural reforms are key to unlocking Mali's growth potential. Improving the business climate by improving transparency and stability of the regulatory framework is crucial to improving private investment. Strengthening fiscal governance, improving public financial management, addressing vulnerabilities in State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs), and enhancing their oversight—particularly in the electricity utility, Energie de Mali—are critical.
Executive Board Assessment [3]
Executive Directors agreed with the thrust of the staff appraisal. They welcomed the resilience of Mali's economy in the face of multiple and entrenched challenges, including ongoing conflict, food insecurity, severe floods, power outages, aid cutbacks, and the shutdown of its largest gold mine. However, they cautioned that substantial downside risks and vulnerabilities complicate prospects. Against this background, Directors underscored the critical importance of sustaining an ambitious reform momentum and promoting policy predictability, supported by capacity development.
With lower mining revenues expected and elevated spending needs post flooding, Directors supported a temporary fiscal loosening in 2025. They however welcomed the authorities' commitment to reduce the deficit below the WAEMU deficit ceiling of 3 percent of GDP by 2027, and encouraged sustained efforts to strengthen domestic revenue mobilization to help safeguard medium-term fiscal sustainability while creating space for social and growth-friendly capital spending. Noting high poverty levels and the large number of displaced people amid declining foreign aid, Directors highlighted the importance of strengthening the social safety net and scaling up targeted measures to support the most vulnerable. They underscored the importance of bolstering spending efficiency and welcomed progress in advancing public financial management reforms under the staff-monitored program. Directors encouraged the establishment of a medium-term fiscal framework to enhance transparency, predictability, and policy credibility.
Directors encouraged further steps to enhance supervisory capacity and strengthen risk management frameworks to safeguard financial stability. They noted potential vulnerabilities from the growing exposure of Malian banks to government securities as well as the recent halt in credit expansion.
Directors stressed the importance of governance reforms for strengthening fiscal management, the business climate, and investor confidence. They commended the authorities for their progress in enhancing the AML/CFT framework and successfully exiting the FATF grey list. Directors urged sustained efforts to bolster anti-corruption frameworks and operationalize the beneficial ownership register. They encouraged further action on asset declaration enforcement, SOE oversight, judicial integrity, and strengthening mining sector regulatory frameworks.
Directors urged the authorities to implement growth-enhancing reforms to realize their ambitious development goals. They stressed the need to tackle growth bottlenecks, enhance public investment management, spur private sector dynamism, attract foreign investment, address climate adaptation, and diversify the economy.
It is expected that the next Article IV consultation with Mali will be held on the standard 12-month cycle.
Mali: Selected Economic and Financial Indicators, 2022–27
Sources: Ministry of Economy and Finance; and IMF staff estimates and projections. 1 Public debt refers to general government debt 2 Includes BCEAO statutory advances, government bonds, treasury bills, and other debts. From 2021 onwards includes SDR allocation in the amount of 1.3 percent of GDP on-lent from the BCEAO. |
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[1] Under Article IV of the IMF's Articles of Agreement, the IMF holds bilateral discussions with members, usually every year. A staff team visits the country, collects economic and financial information, and discusses with officials the country's economic developments and policies. On return to headquarters, the staff prepares a report, which forms the basis for discussion by the Executive Board.
[2] Under the IMF's Articles of Agreement, publication of documents that pertain to member countries is voluntary and requires the member consent. The authorities have requested additional time to decide on the publication of the staff report. A final decision is expected not later than 28 days from the Board consideration date.
[3] At the conclusion of the discussion, the Managing Director, as Chair of the Board, summarizes the views of Executive Directors, and this summary is transmitted to the country's authorities. An explanation of any qualifiers used in summings up can be found here: http://www.IMF.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm.
