- The IMF Executive Board today concluded the 2025 Article IV consultation and completed the eighth review under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) for Guinea-Bissau. The completion of the review allows for an immediate disbursement of SDR 4.73 million (about US$ 6.5 million), bringing total disbursement under the arrangement to SDR 35.04 million (about US$ 48.1 million)
- Program performance was mixed. Seven out of nine Quantitative Performance Criteria and three out of four Structural Benchmarks for end-December 2024 were met. The continuous Structural Benchmark on debt service payments was met while the continuous Structural Benchmark on the expenditure committee (COTADO) was missed.
- Growth is expected to reach 5.1 percent in 2025 while inflation should average 2 percent. The current account deficit is expected to narrow to 5.8 percent of GDP in 2025, reflecting better terms of trade. The authorities are committed to achieving a fiscal deficit of 3.4 percent of GDP in 2025, to put public debt on a firm downward trajectory. The economic outlook is positive but remains subject to significant domestic and external risks.
Washington, DC: The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded today the 2025 Article IV consultation [1] and completed the eighth review under Extended Credit Facility (ECF) arrangement for Guinea-Bissau. The three-year arrangement , approved on January 30, 2023, aims to secure debt sustainability, improve governance, and reduce corruption, while creating fiscal space to foster inclusive growth. The Executive Board granted an augmentation of access (140 percent of quota or SDR 39.76 million) on November 29, 2023. The completion of the eighth review enables the disbursement of SDR 4.73 million (about US$ 6.5 million) to help meet the country's balance-of-payments and fiscal financing needs. This brings total disbursement under the arrangement to SDR 35.04 million (about US$ 48.1 million). The authorities have consented to the publication of the Staff Report prepared for this consultation. [2]
Program performance was mixed. Seven out of nine Quantitative Performance Criteria and three out of four Structural Benchmarks for end-December 2024 were met. The continuous Structural Benchmark on debt service payments was met while the continuous Structural Benchmark on the expenditure committee (COTADO) was missed. In completing the eighth review, the Executive Board granted waivers for the non-observance of quantitative performance criteria based on corrective actions taken by the authorities [including the revenue and expenditure measures adopted as prior actions for the review], approved the authorities' request for modification of performance criteria and indicative targets, and completed the financing assurance review. The Executive Board also approved the authorities' request for the program extension until July 29, 2026, and rephasing of access to provide them with sufficient time to implement fiscal consolidation policies supported by the ECF program.
Economic growth is projected to reach 5.1 percent in 2025, supported by strong exports and investments, while inflation is expected to decelerate and average 2 percent. The current account deficit should narrow to 5.8 percent of GDP in 2025, reflecting a significant improvement in Guinea-Bissau's terms of trade. The authorities are committed to achieving a fiscal deficit of 3.4 percent of GDP in 2025 to put public debt on a firm downward trajectory. While the direct impact of recent global trade tensions on Guinea-Bissau is limited, the economy remains subject to significant downside risks amid a challenging socio-political climate in an election year and capacity constraints. The 2025 Article IV consultation discussions focused on policies aimed at supporting economic diversification to reduce dependency on cashew nuts, maintaining fiscal sustainability through domestic revenue mobilization, and bolstering social protection and human capital to promote inclusive growth.
Following the Executive Board discussion, Mr. Okamura, Deputy Managing Director and Acting Chair, issued the following statement:
"The economy of Guinea-Bissau has been resilient, supported by strong investment spending. While growth is projected to continue around its potential of 4½-5 percent over the medium term, significant challenges remain. In particular, the high export dependency on cashew nuts and the high risk of debt distress leave the country vulnerable to adverse changes in the international environment. Against this background, the authorities are focused on policies designed to diversify the economy and broaden the export base, including by supporting additional growth sectors such as mining and fishing.
"Achieving the fiscal consolidation target for 2025 is essential to reduce public debt vulnerabilities. In this context, the authorities remain committed to containing domestic primary spending within the 2025 budget and to maintain strict control over the wage bill. This is being supported by strong expenditure controls, including by ensuring that project disbursements are thoroughly verified and discretionary spending remains within agreed allocations. Measures to boost revenue mobilization to bring tax collection closer to its potential through a combination of tax policy measures and revenue administration reforms are vital to create fiscal space to support economic development while reducing fiscal risks.
"Good progress has been made in addressing financial sector vulnerabilities. The recent approval by the regional Banking Commission for the purchase offer for the undercapitalized bank, and the authorities' decision to divest the government's stake in the bank, are important steps in reducing systemic financial sector risks.
"Boosting inclusive growth calls for implementing sustained social protection programs to protect the poor, diversifying the economy, strengthening the business environment and governance, and improving the efficiency of education and health spending. Broadening the coverage of social protection programs and mainstreaming them within government structures would help reduce poverty indicators. At the same time, progressively reducing broad-based subsidies and moving towards more targeted programs would also boost the impact of social spending."
Executive Board Assessment [3]
Executive Directors agreed with the thrust of the staff appraisal. They welcomed the resilience of the economy and the significant progress in infrastructure development since the last Article IV consultation. Noting the mixed performance under the ECF and significant downside risks, they welcomed the strong corrective measures that have been implemented as prior actions for the eighth ECF review. They supported the authorities' request for a six-month extension of the ECF, to help anchor the fiscal targets for the whole of 2025 and reinforce the commitment to fiscal consolidation.
Given the high risk of debt distress, Directors underscored the critical importance of sustained fiscal consolidation and further reinforcing debt management to ensure that the debt to GDP ratio remains on a downward trajectory. They encouraged the authorities to boost revenue mobilization through tax policy and tax administration measures, thereby creating fiscal space for priority social and development spending while strengthening debt sustainability. They called for reinforcing expenditure controls and strengthening public financial management to contain the wage bill and prevent the recurrence of spending overruns. Continuing to refrain from nonconcessional borrowing while keeping further concessional borrowing within program targets remains important. Fiscal risks from the public utility company should also be addressed, including by speeding up its revenue mobilization.
Directors welcomed the approval of the sale of the undercapitalized bank, which paves the way for the government's disengagement. They called for a swift capitalization of the bank by its new owners to strengthen financial sector resilience.
Directors stressed the need for sustained structural reforms to underpin macroeconomic stabilization and boost growth. They highlighted the importance of efforts to strengthen the business environment, remove market distortions, and reduce informality. Diversifying the economy, notably in sectors with potential such as fishing, mining, and traditional agriculture, remains critical for inclusive growth and reducing dependence on cashew exports. They urged the authorities to expedite steps to strengthen governance, anti-corruption, and AML/CFT standards. They called for reforms to strengthen procurement transparency and enhance the robustness of the audit function, to help improve public sector transparency and efficiency.
Directors positively noted the authorities' efforts to address gaps in the provision of macroeconomic data.
It is expected that the next Article IV consultation with Guinea Bissau will be held on a 24-month cycle in accordance with the Executive Board decision on consultation cycles for members with Fund arrangements.
Guinea-Bissau: Selected Economic Indicators, 2022-26 Population (2024): 2.0 million Per capita GDP (2024): US$ 1,104 Main export product: cashew nuts Key export markets: India, Vietnam
Sources: Guinea-Bissau authorities and IMF staff estimates and projections |
[1] Under Article IV of the IMF's Articles of Agreement, the IMF holds bilateral discussions with members, usually every year. A staff team visits the country, collects economic and financial information, and discusses with officials the country's economic developments and policies. On return to headquarters, the staff prepares a report, which forms the basis for discussion by the Executive Board.
[2] Under the IMF's Articles of Agreement, publication of documents that pertain to member countries is voluntary and requires the member consent. The staff report will be shortly published on the www.imf.org/guinea-bissau page.
[3] At the conclusion of the discussion, the Managing Director, as Chairman of the Board, summarizes the views of Executive Directors, and this summary is transmitted to the country's authorities. An explanation of any qualifiers used in summings up can be found here: http://www.IMF.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm .
