- The IMF and Guinea-Bissau have reached a staff-level agreement on economic policies that could support the Ninth review of the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) arrangement. This agreement is subject to approval by the IMF's management and Executive Board, and contingent on the implementation of the agreed prior actions. Upon completion of the review, Guinea-Bissau will have access to approximately US$3.2 million.
- Program performance has been mixed, reflecting the impact of a challenging socio-political environment. Despite these headwinds, the authorities reaffirmed their commitment to the ECF-supported reform objectives.
- Growth is expected to reach 5.5 percent in 2025, and inflation is projected to ease to 2 percent. The authorities have committed to a package of corrective measures to bring the deficit down to 4.2 percent of GDP in 2025.
Washington D.C.: A team from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), led by Niko Hobdari, Mission Chief for Guinea-Bissau, held meetings in Bissau during September 23 – October 3, 2025 to discuss macroeconomic policies in the context of the Ninth Review of the ECF arrangement [ [1] ] . This staff-level agreement is contingent on the implementation of the agreed prior actions and is subject to IMF Management approval and Executive Board consideration. The initial arrangement was approved by the IMF Executive Board for a total amount of
SDR 28.4 million (about US$37.3 million) on January 30, 2023. The IMF Executive Board granted an augmentation of access (to 140 percent of quota or SDR 39.76 million) on November 29, 2023.
At the conclusion of the mission, Mr. Hobdari issued the following statement:
"I am pleased to announce that the Guinea-Bissau authorities and the IMF staff have reached a staff-level agreement on economic and financial policies that could support the approval of the Ninth Review of the ECF program. Conclusion of the Review by the IMF Executive Board would enable the disbursement of SDR 2.36 million (about US$3.2 million), bringing total disbursement under the arrangement to SDR 37.4 million (about US$51.3 million).
"Growth is expected to reach 5.5 percent in 2025 on the back of strong cashew nut production and improvements in the terms of trade. Strong private consumption and investment also support economic activity. The fiscal deficit is projected to be larger than expected, reflecting a shortfall in revenues.
"Despite some progress, program performance has been mixed. Seven out of ten Quantitative Performance Criteria (QPC) for June 2025 were met. The QPC on the wage bill was missed by a small margin. The zero ceiling on non-regularized expenditures (DNT) and the QPC on other common expenditures were also breached. Nonetheless, the authorities continue to make progress with regard to the structural benchmarks, albeit with some delays.
"The 2025 budget faces significant pressures due to lower-than-expected revenues and spending overruns in the first half of the year. In this context, the authorities are committed to implementing a set of corrective fiscal measures to reach the revised deficit target of 4.2 percent of GDP in 2025. In 2026, they plan to introduce further measures to enhance domestic revenue mobilization and strengthen expenditure controls, with the aim of achieving a fiscal deficit target of 3.5 percent of GDP.
"Looking ahead, advancing key structural reforms will support inclusive growth and economic diversification. These include reforms to improve governance and address corruption, and efforts to invest in infrastructure and ensure backup power supply. On the fiscal front, the authorities should rationalize tax exemptions, accelerate tax administration reforms, and strengthen the implementation of the new Value Added Tax to create fiscal space for much-needed development spending. Managing fiscal risks from state-owned enterprises and the banking sector and seeking grants and loans on highly concessional terms will be essential to ensuring fiscal sustainability.
"The IMF team commended the authorities for their continued engagement and emphasized the importance of maintaining reform momentum to safeguard macroeconomic stability and support long-term development objectives."
The IMF team met with H.E. President Embalo, Prime Minister Camara, Minister of Finance Té, Minister of Economy, Planning and Regional Integration Sambu, Minister of Energy Forbes, and BCEAO National Director Cassama. The team met with officials from the Ministries of Finance, Economy, Agriculture, Fisheries, Justice, Public Health, the National Directorate of the BCEAO, the National Institute of Statistics, the Court of Accounts, the procurement authorities, and other officials. The team also met with representatives of public and private sector enterprises, as well as key bilateral and international partners.
Key links:
[1] The Extended Credit Facility (ECF) provides financial assistance to countries with protracted balance of payments problems. It supports countries' economic programs aimed at moving toward a stable and sustainable macroeconomic position consistent with strong and durable poverty reduction and growth. The ECF may also help catalyze additional foreign aid.
