- Cameroon's economy has demonstrated considerable resilience in recent years, despite a succession of external shocks, although economic growth remains subdued and fiscal performance weakened in 2025.
- Growth is projected to pick up to 3.3 percent in 2026 and exceed 4 percent from 2028, as energy bottlenecks ease. The 2026 budget appropriately tightens the fiscal stance, in line with the regional convergence criteria. Downside risks remain elevated.
- The authorities' policy agenda should focus on addressing persistent structural and policy obstacles that continue weighing on growth. Reform areas include improving access to finance; strengthening investment planning and implementation; expanding infrastructure investment through greater reliance on concessional financing; sustaining efforts to boost non-oil domestic revenue mobilization and initiating reforms to deepen the regional treasury market.
Washington, DC: An International Monetary Fund (IMF) mission, headed by Christine Dieterich, visited Cameroon during January 29 to February 12 to conduct the IMF's 2026 Article IV Consultation discussions. The mission focused on recent economic developments and the short- and medium-term economic outlook. At the end of the mission, Ms. Dieterich issued the following statement:
"Cameroon's economy has demonstrated considerable resilience in recent years, despite a succession of external shocks, although economic growth remains subdued. Growth is expected to slow to 3.1 percent in 2025, from 3.5 percent in 2024. This projection reflects post-election unrest toward the end of the year, which disrupted trade, services, and investment, and dampened domestic demand. Inflation continued to decline in 2025, with the 12-month average easing to 3.4 percent in December.
"There are indications that Cameroon's external position weakened in 2025. The current account deficit is expected to have widened to 3.9 percent of GDP, from 3.3 percent in 2024, partly due to a decline in oil exports. Nonetheless, Cameroon's contribution to CEMAC's international reserves was broadly unchanged in 2025, also thanks to external commercial borrowing.
"Preliminary data indicate that fiscal performance weakened in 2025 amid election-related uncertainty, partly reversing the steady improvements achieved in recent years. The overall fiscal deficit is estimated to have widened from about 1.5 percent of GDP in 2024 to around 2 percent of GDP in 2025. In line with this deterioration, the non‑oil primary balance is estimated to have worsened to about 2.6 percent of GDP, compared with a budget target of about 1.4 percent of GDP. This outcome reflects underperformance in non-oil revenues and, as in recent years, slippage in current expenditure, which more than offset lagging capital expenditure execution. Uncertainty around the 2025 outturn remains high, including the risk of additional arrears and extrabudgetary commitments. Near-term financing pressures remain elevated, prompting external commercial borrowing. Cameroon's debt sustainability analysis continues to show high overall risk of debt distress.
"The growth outlook is cautiously favorable. Growth is projected to recover to 3.3 percent in 2026, reflecting higher public investment amid easing uncertainty. A strong rebound is expected in 2027–28, albeit subject to elevated risks, notably related to the timely completion of ongoing projects to address bottlenecks in electricity transmission. The medium-term growth outlook is projected to reach 4.6 in 2031, supported by mining diversification. Inflation is projected to decline to 2.9 percent in 2026, in line with the regional convergence criteria, and stabilize at around 2.5 percent in the medium run. The IMF mission agreed with the authorities' objective under the 2026 budget to tighten the fiscal policy stance, targeting a deficit of 1.7 percent of GDP. The outlook remains subject to significant risks, including at the regional level. Weakening regional reserves, tight liquidity, public financial management weaknesses, and debt market vulnerabilities could intensify pressures. External risks include possible commodity price volatility, higher global interest rates, and reduced international aid. The outlook is also weighed down by continued security and climate related challenges.
"The IMF mission lauded the authorities' efforts to strengthen macroeconomic stability over the Fund-supported program than concluded in July 2025. The mission focused its recommendations on addressing persistent structural and policy challenges that have constrained Cameroon's ability to achieve higher rates of economic growth. Key reform priorities include improving access to finance; strengthening investment planning and implementation; expanding the envelope for infrastructure investment through greater reliance on concessional project financing; sustaining efforts to boost non-oil domestic revenue mobilization; operationalizing the Single Treasury Account; and advancing reforms to deepen the regional treasury market. The mission also underscored the importance of strengthening public financial management, particularly commitment controls and the avoidance of off-budget expenditure. To gradually clear government arrears, the budget should include a realistic timetable for arrears clearance as part of a medium-term financing strategy, to reduce risk perceptions and improve private sector liquidity.
"The mission stressed the need for sustained implementation of the recommendations of the 2023 governance assessment diagnostic, particularly to address identified weaknesses in the asset declaration, audit, and anti-corruption frameworks.
"The IMF Executive Board is expected to consider the staff report on the 2026 Article IV Consultation with Cameroon in late March. The mission wishes to thank the authorities for their warm hospitality, their excellent cooperation, and the constructive dialogue that was the hallmark of the discussions."
