This report argues that Australia and Japan should develop a partial division of labour in the Pacific to protect the critical sea lines of communication (SLOC) connecting the two countries. This is necessary to reinforce deterrence now and prepare for a possible war instigated by China. In such a conflict, the United States would likely be focused on fighting China and expect allies to shoulder most of the burden of protecting their own supply chains.
The report divides the Pacific into four zones and highlights which areas matter most for each partner's strategic interests. Geography dictates that Japan must pay more attention to countering China in Micronesia, where it works closely with the US, while Australia should play a more prominent role working with New Zealand in Polynesia. Japanese and Australian interests overlap most substantially in Melanesia, especially Papua New Guinea and Solomon Islands, with both of those nations bracketing or running parallel to the key SLOC between the east coast of Australia and Japan, forming a chokepoint.
Key recommendations in the report include:
- Australia and Japan should engage the US in joint contingency planning for a wartime division of labour, with the Trilateral Defence Ministerial Meeting serving as the primary coordination mechanism. As a secondary priority, consultations should extend to South Korea, the Philippines and Taiwan.
- Australian and Japanese ministers and officials should look for opportunities to raise conflict-preparedness issues privately with Pacific governments. While each country will often engage Pacific partners separately, their messaging should be coordinated.
- To manage some of the risks and sensitivities of such discussions, think tanks and research institutions could also play a helpful role, including through the expansion of Track 1.5 mechanisms that engage Japan, Australia and the wider Pacific.
- Australia should help Japan deepen its engagement with existing mechanisms for regional security cooperation, such as the Joint Heads of Pacific Security Meeting and the South Pacific Defence Ministers' Meeting, while being mindful not to establish pathways into these forums that China could attempt to follow.
- Australia could help lay the groundwork for Japan to establish a defence attaché in Port Moresby. While the decision rests solely with PNG and Japan, Australia's close defence ties with both countries mean it would form part of the discussion.
