This page explains the updates to the data sources used to compile the international trade release. This data will be published as part of the international trade release on 2 September 2025.
We make data updates annually, in line with international best practice, to ensure that our statistics continue to reflect our changing world.
The changes made in this release fall into two categories:
- new or updated information becoming available
- corrections to our outputs due to internal errors in data processing.
Contents
Low value goods imports
Travel services exports
Education travel services
Transportation
Technology
Insurance
Personal, cultural, and recreational
Other data updates
Low value goods imports
Low value imported goods (LVIG) refers to imported goods with a value of NZ$1,000 or less (excluding GST). We have updated the methodology for estimating LVIG, as outlined below. This update has resulted in a downward revision in the total value of LVIG.
Current method
Currently LVIG are modelled based on parcel volume data from the New Zealand Customs Service and inflated by a custom price index and benchmark created in 2013, to create an estimate of the value of these imports.
Motivation for change
This model has been in place for over a decade with limited review of methods or outputs. During this time there has been an increase in the volume of parcels, particularly during and post the COVID-19 pandemic, with the volume of parcels doubling over a five-year period.
As a result, the estimated value of LVIG in 2024 has doubled, compared with the LVIG value of 2019. This increase in value does not reflect that the average price of a parcel has decreased since the initial 2013 custom price index and benchmark. The overall result is that the estimated total value of LVIG is higher than it should be.
Updated method
For the June 2025 quarter, we revised LVIG values from the March 2013 quarter using additional administrative data from the New Zealand Customs Service, and goods and services tax (GST) from Inland Revenue (IR).
The new method introduced this quarter for estimating LVIG is as follows:
- We use Customs total parcel import values reconciled to an annual benchmark series. This annual benchmark is created by splicing non-resident GST increases and decreases to the low-value imports levels series from June 2020.
- The existing low-value imports levels series is based on Inland Revenue estimates extrapolated using Customs volumes and a consumer price index (CPI) sub-index.
We are continuing to evaluate the LVIG sources, methods, and values and anticipate that further revisions are likely next year.
Travel services exports
A data transfer issue caused the values for the March 2025 quarter to be based on an old data weighting scheme. The correct total would be less than 1.0 percent lower than the current value.
We detected the change too late to be able to comfortably confront the impact of revisions on other series that use travel services export values.
We have decided to include the error in the June 2025 quarter publication and will revise it in the following publications of this series.
Travel services model updates
During Stats NZ's March 2024 quarter releases, the travel services exports series results had an unexpected effect on the corresponding seasonally adjusted series in other releases.
Seasonally adjusted estimates of travel services exports in the March 2024 quarter were unexpectedly low. We identified that this was the result of differences in the seasonal pattern produced by the pre-2020 and post-2020 methodologies. We acknowledged this issue in our published data in the March 2024 quarterly release and in the International trade: June 2024 quarter - data sources and methods release.
Interim solution
Following investigation, we implemented an interim solution to improve the consistency of the travel services exports series. We determined that to produce robust seasonally adjusted estimates, it would be necessary to use consistent pre-2020 and post-2020 methodology.
Our solution was to return to the direct use of estimates from the International Visitor Survey (IVS) from September 2022 onwards to be consistent with the methodology of the pre-2020 series. We retained the existing modelled values through the COVID-19 border closure period (March 2020 to June 2022) which were based on the Visitor Stock Model (VSM) when the IVS was not able to be run.
Travel services exports models - background information has further information on the difference in methods and the timing issue it caused.
Latest update
We are still developing a travel services model that can be implemented and replace the interim solution. The model is planned to be methodologically similar to the previously published VSM but backdated to include values pre-2020. This will keep the seasonal consistency of the series between the pre- and post-COVID-19 pandemic border closure.
Education travel services
Exports
We have revised the March 2024 to March 2025 quarters (inclusive) to be based on the latest Export Education Levy data compiled by the Ministry of Education and updated student visa numbers compiled by Immigration New Zealand.
Imports
We have revised the March 2024 to March 2025 quarters (inclusive) to better reflect prices of tuition and living costs for New Zealanders studying overseas, and to use updated New Zealand resident arrival numbers.
Transportation
We have revised the September 2022 to September 2023 quarters (inclusive) due to updates in the source data. This included a magnitude error which has been corrected.
Technology
We have revised the March 2024 to March 2025 quarters (inclusive) based on updated source data and validation of held data.
Insurance
We have revised the June 2024 quarter based on updated source data and validation of the series against other information sources, such as the annual financial statements of companies.
Personal, cultural, and recreational
We have revised film exports using external data sources. This affects the September 2024 to March 2025 quarters (inclusive).
Other data updates
We have made minor updates to other series in the June 2024 to March 2025 quarters (inclusive), based on updated data provided by individual enterprise survey respondents.
Technical enquiries
Alex Waites
04 931 4600
[email protected]
