The largest poll of climate change attitudes ever conducted in Australia has revealed that 71% of voters in the key marginal seat of Reid want to see the federal government doing more on climate change action – a higher percentage than in inner city seats like Sydney, Adelaide, and Brisbane.
The YouGov poll, conducted on behalf of the Australian Conservation Foundation, found 32% of voters in the Western Sydney seat ranked climate change as their top election issue, while 39% said it was among their top three issues.
"The fact that nearly three out of every four voters in this key Liberal-held Western Sydney marginal seat want their government to do more on climate change action represents a big shift," said ACF chief executive Kelly O'Shanassy.
"This is part of a broader groundswell we've observed nationally that sees voters across the country increasingly prioritise climate change as a key election issue."
The poll is the first time YouGov's multilevel regression with poststratification (MRP) has been used in Australia, after the technique's stunning success predicting the recent British election. YouGov interviewed a representative sample of over 15,000 Australian voters.
The MRP tool combines census data such as population density, education, and household income with polling data to construct an estimate of how issues would play out in that specific geographical area.
YouGov spokesperson Ben Oxenham said it was an exciting way of reliably mapping community sentiment across electorates.
"MRP is based on the idea that people with similar characteristics behave in similar ways, and allow us to paint a much more detailed picture using our polling data," Mr Oxenham said.
"This massive poll shows age and gender plays a much bigger role in determining voters' attitudes to climate change action than where they live."
"Our polling shows a young woman living in Strathfield is more likely to share the same views about climate change with someone the same age in Tamworth, than she might with her baby boomer parents who live next door," Ms O'Shanassy said.
The poll found 71% of Australian women want to see the government do more, compared to 62% of men. 77% of women do not believe coal and gas should be a part of Australia's future energy mix, compared to 64% of men.
Age was also a key difference in Australian attitudes towards the government's action on climate change. 41% of 18 to 24 year olds wanted to see the government do "much more" compared to 31% of those aged 50 to 64, and 32% of those over 64. 79% of voters under 24 didn't believe coal or gas should be part of Australia's future energy mix, compared to 63% of over 65s.
