March has been wetter than average for large parts of the country, with Tropical Cyclone Narelle likely to bring more rain to the west coast before the end of the month.
Some drought-affected areas of South Australia and western Victoria saw more than 4 times their average March rainfall. Parts of northern New South Wales and Tasmania have had below average rainfall for the month.
Early in the month, a deep trough and embedded tropical lows caused heavy rainfall and flooding, from the Top End of the Northern Territory to south-east Queensland. At Katherine, the river level peaked just below the 1998 record. Communities along the Daly River were evacuated due to major flooding.
Later in the month, Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle made landfall on the far north Queensland coast as a category 4 system, before also crossing the Top End of the Northern Territory. The active tropical weather with extensive cloud cover brought cooler than average days across the Northern Territory and South Australia.
However, for parts of the west and south-east, March days have been warmer than usual. Meanwhile, overnight temperatures have been above average across most of the country.
With heavy rains in February and March, root zone soil moisture has increased substantially. Soil moisture is now above to very much above average over large parts of the country.
Compared to January, rainfall in February and March has led to increases in streamflow across much of the country. Streamflow is now very much above average for northern Australia.
Combined, water storages across Australia are around 69% full. Many storages in the north and east are near or at capacity. However, some storages in the south and east are less than half full.
Looking ahead, rainfall for April to June is likely to be below average across the southern two-thirds of the country. For the far north, above average rainfall is likely for some areas. However, May marks the beginning of the northern Australian dry season, when most of the tropical north typically receives very little rainfall.
April to June days are likely to be warmer than usual for the southern two-thirds of Australia. For northern parts of Queensland and the Northern Territory, days are likely to be cooler than average. Late season warmth is still possible in the coming months. There is an increased chance of unusually high maximum temperatures for much of the southern half of Australia. April to June night-time temperatures are likely to be above average for large parts of Australia.
Warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures are forecast for much of the Australian region especially around the southern coasts.
For the tropical Pacific, models suggest a possible shift to El Niño by late winter. However, there's still uncertainty around its timing and strength, with a clearer picture expected as autumn unfolds. We regularly update our long‑range forecasts as ocean and atmospheric conditions change, with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation being just one part of the bigger climate picture.
In summary, this April to June, we're likely to see below average rainfall across much of the country, above average rainfall for parts of the far north, and cooler days in the north, but warmer elsewhere.
Visit the Bureau's website to stay up to date with the latest long-range forecasts. Bye for now.
Our long-range forecast video provides a look at likely rainfall, streamflow, and temperature for the months ahead.
