- rainfall is likely to be below average across most of the country
- days are likely to be warmer than average south of the tropics
- overnight temperatures are likely to be warmer than above average in the west and far east
- but cooler in parts of the north.
February was warmer than average in western and eastern parts of Australia. But for much of the country, temperatures were near or below average due to persistent rainfall and cloud cover from tropical systems.
This tropical activity, which included several slow-moving tropical lows, brought above average rainfall and widespread flooding across most of inland Australia during February. It was the second-wettest February on record for South Australia and the third-wettest for the Northern Territory.
Root-zone soil moisture is currently above average across large parts of Australia. Soil moisture remains below average for north-eastern New South Wales, Tasmania, and parts of the west.
Looking ahead, rainfall for the rest of March is likely to be above average for much of the tropical north. Flood risk is likely to remain heightened in this region, well into autumn.
The April to June forecast currently shows below average rainfall is likely for most of Australia except in parts of the far north. May marks the start of northern Australia's dry season, when most of the tropical north typically sees very little rain.
For March to May, near-median to high streamflow is likely for much of northern Australia and parts of the south. Low flow is likely for many sites in the south and east.
Daytime temperatures for April to June are likely to be above average across most of Australia except for parts of the far north where cooler than average days are favoured.
Nights are likely to be warmer than average across much of Western Australia, Tasmania, and Australia's eastern and southern coasts. In contrast, parts of the north-west are likely to have cooler than average overnight temperatures.
Sea surface temperatures for April to June are forecast to be warmer than average across much of the globe, including around parts of Australia. La Niña continues to weaken, with all models indicating a shift to neutral conditions - neither La Niña nor El Niño - in early autumn.
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