October to December rainfall is likely to be above average for most of the eastern half of Australia.
Days and nights are likely to be warmer than average for most of the country.
August temperatures were above average for much of western, southern, and eastern Australia, and below average for parts of the Northern Territory and western Queensland.
Rainfall was above average across much of the west and parts of the east during August, but below average for large regions in the south and interior. Many sites in eastern New South Wales recorded their wettest August on record.
Root zone soil moisture remains above average along much of the eastern seaboard. Rainfall since the start of August has increased soil moisture in western parts of the country and Tasmania. However, soil moisture remains below average across parts of the south and south-east.
August rainfall has eased the severity of rainfall deficiencies for the year to date in some western areas. However, rainfall deficiencies persist in parts of south-eastern Australia, especially across Tasmania.
Looking ahead, sea surface temperatures for October to December are forecast to remain warmer than average in waters to Australia's north, east, and south-east. A negative Indian Ocean Dipole is likely to persist until early summer, likely contributing to above average rainfall in eastern Australia.
Daytime temperatures for October to December are likely to be above average for much of Australia while overnight temperatures are very likely to be above average almost nationwide.
October to December rainfall is likely to be above average for most of the eastern half of Australia. For eastern New South Wales and south-east Queensland, where soils are wetter than average, this forecast indicates an increased flood risk in the coming months. In the west, the forecast signal is weak, meaning roughly equal chances of above or below average rainfall.
For September to November, near-median to high streamflow is likely for most locations along the east coast, northern Tasmania, and the south-west.
Low flow is likely across parts of the south-east mainland and in the north-east.
We update our long-range forecast regularly.
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