But first let's look at recent conditions.
September was warmer than average across most of Australia, with high pressure systems dominating conditions across the south.
Overall, it was Australia's second warmest September on record.
Periods of hot weather during the month saw daily temperature records set at some sites across the south, including Albany, reaching 31.8 degrees and Parafield climbing to 35.6.
September rainfall was above average for the western interior and parts of the far north.
However, it was drier than average in parts of the south-west and across much of the eastern half of Australia.
For the Murray-Darling Basin, it was the second driest September on record.
The warm and dry conditions led to elevated fire danger ratings for many parts of the country this month.
Bushfires have flared up across parts of Queensland and New South Wales in recent weeks.
The 2026 snow season saw record warmth across the alpine regions. Much of the precipitation for the season fell as rain rather than snow.
At Snowy Hydro Spencers Creek site in New South Wales, the snow depth dropped to zero for the first time in September since records began in 1954.
Root zone soil moisture has decreased in many areas during September.
Soils are currently drier than average across much of south-western Australia and for much of the east.
Soils remain wetter than average across large parts of inland southern Australia.
Streamflow in late September was below average across the south-west, the south-east and parts of north-east New South Wales.
Streamflow has been above average across many sites in northern Australia and scattered parts of the south.
Storages across the northern Murray-Darling Basin are currently 55% full, a decrease of 27% over the past year.
However, storages across the southern Murray-Darling Basin are currently 72% full following good winter inflows.
Looking ahead, above average rainfall is forecast for October to December in much of the western half of Australia. Later in this season, this pattern extends into parts of Queensland and New South Wales.
In contrast, below average rainfall is likely for parts of the far north and south-east.
The October forecast shows a drier start to the season, with below average rainfall likely across larger areas of northern Australia.
Both daytime and nighttime temperatures during October to December are likely to be above average for almost all of Australia.
There is an increased chance of unusually warm days across the southern two-thirds of Australia, especially for the south-east.
Additionally, most of the country is very likely to have unusually warm nights for the rest of the year.
This forecast indicates an increased risk of heatwaves as we move into the warmer months.
Sea surface temperatures are forecast to warm across the Australian region over the coming months, increasing the risk of marine heatwaves, especially in the south-east.
El Niño is expected to strengthen further, with the event likely to peak in late spring or summer, and a brief positive Indian Ocean Dipole event remains possible this year.
In summary, our forecast for October to December shows above average rainfall for much of the western half of Australia and parts of the east.
Below average rainfall in parts of the far north and south-east, and unusually warm days and nights across much of Australia.
The Bureau's website and select your location for the latest long range forecast details. Bye for now.
The Bureau's long-range forecast video provides a look at likely rainfall, streamflow, and temperature for the months ahead.
