In an increasingly complex geopolitical environment, critical minerals have moved to the forefront of countries' energy, economic and national security agendas - leading to increased attention to supply chain diversification and resilience. Yet as risks continue to proliferate, even stronger action is needed, a new IEA report finds.
The 2026 edition of the IEA's annual Global Critical Minerals Outlook, out today, presents the latest data and analysis on supply, demand, investment and more for key energy minerals, including copper, lithium, nickel, cobalt, graphite and rare earth elements. It also examines market trends for a broader range of strategic minerals that play vital roles across the energy, high-tech, aerospace and advanced manufacturing industries.
The report finds that after declining in recent years, the prices of critical minerals rebounded in 2025 and early 2026 as supply conditions tightened - a trend that has been amplified by a raft of new export restrictions from leading suppliers. Price volatility and geopolitical tensions have weighed on investment, which fell by 9% in 2025, ending several consecutive years of growth.
Amid these developments, the geographic concentration of mineral supply chains has increased further, particularly for refining. Over the past two years, the top refiners - Indonesia for nickel and China for other key energy minerals - accounted for over three‑quarters of total growth in refined supply. In several markets, including for manganese, nickel and graphite, virtually all supply growth during this period came from the dominant supplier.
However, there have also been areas of improvement. This is in part because governments are taking more active roles in supporting the expansion and diversification of critical mineral supplies. Public finance commitments more than quadrupled between 2023 and 2025, reaching $65 billion. In rare earth refining, new projects in the United States and production increases in Malaysia reduced the share of the top supplier from over 90% in 2023 to 85% in 2025, and if planned projects come online as scheduled, it is projected to fall to 70% by 2035. Meanwhile, as new projects for copper and lithium advance, gaps between projected demand and anticipated supply over the next 10 years have narrowed.
While many projects are being announced and developed across the globe, analysis of project pipelines outside the dominant supplier reveals a structural imbalance in supply chain diversification efforts - with investment concentrated in mining, while efforts to expand refining and downstream capacity lag behind. In rare earth supply chains, this means that planned refining capacity reaches only around two-thirds of expected mine output by 2035, while planned magnet production amounts to just one-third.
The report notes that the recent expansion of export controls globally has transformed concerns around high supply concentration from a theoretical vulnerability into an immediate economic security challenge. Rare earth export controls introduced by China in April 2025 forced some automakers to reduce production or temporarily suspend operations. In October 2025, these controls were further expanded, and although their implementation was delayed for one year, an estimated $6.5 trillion in annual downstream production outside China could be jeopardised if the measures are enacted fully.
The report also sees a strong case for policymakers to focus more attention on strategic minor minerals - those for which markets are small, but any supply disruptions could carry an outsize economic impact. New analysis finds that despite extremely high supply concentration today, strategic minor minerals offer promising opportunities to strengthen supply security at a reasonable cost, provided that robust policy support and international coordination are in place.
"Our latest analysis shows that vast amounts of economic value depend on relatively small volumes of critical minerals, whose supply chains remain highly concentrated and are therefore vulnerable," said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol. "Yet there are encouraging signs of progress - including in rare earth supply chains - where we see targeted policies and investment support starting to make a difference. And while diversified supply can come at a higher cost, this can be viewed as a mineral security premium in a time of geopolitical uncertainty - a form of economic insurance against major supply risks."
According to the report, critical minerals generally account for a small share of final product prices, suggesting that the additional cost of diversification could be absorbed with limited impact on consumers. For example, critical minerals account for around one-quarter of battery cell costs but only about 3% of the price of an average electric vehicle, while rare earths represent around 40% of permanent magnet costs, but less than 1% of a vehicle's value.
The report also notes that diversification is not simply a question of developing new projects. It requires addressing technology and equipment bottlenecks and building a skilled workforce. For example, outside China, only a handful of suppliers provide key battery-grade-graphite and rare earth processing equipment, often with significantly higher costs and long lead times.
To support decision makers looking to bolster critical mineral security, this year's report includes new analysis on what is needed from a policy perspective to build resilient and diversified supply chains - with recommendations on emergency preparedness, enabling investment and addressing gaps in technology, equipment and workforce skills.
Dr Birol said: "The IEA will continue to support governments as they look to bolster the security of critical mineral supplies. The latest data and analysis, included in our new Global Critical Minerals Outlook, are an important part of this effort. Our Critical Minerals Security Programme is also playing a key role in enhancing emergency preparedness and accelerating supply chain diversification globally."
