Multi-State Severe Storms Forecast This Weekend

Now, what's happening on the radar at the moment? Not nearly as much as what has been in the last few days. Scattered showers and the odd thunderstorm across central Queensland in particular, and down through south-east Queensland and the Northern Rivers of New South Wales so much more benign picture for now than what we saw this time yesterday.

Now, what's to come over the rest of today? Well, we have to zoom out. The focus on Friday is through central Queensland, particularly south-east Queensland and northern New South Wales. And then as we move into Saturday, we shift our attention down to the southern states as well, where this trough system is going to be the focus of some severe storms, possibly through parts of South Australia, Victoria on Saturday, that increases to rain through, particularly Victoria and Tasmania in the early hours of Sunday morning.

And then later on Sunday, we'll see a significant severe thunderstorm outbreak through the ACT and western New South Wales with this trough system during Sunday afternoon, pushing through to north-east New South Wales and south-east Queensland for another severe storm outbreak later in the day on Monday and then finally later Monday this trough system will push off the coast into the Tasman Sea, and south-east Australia will see much more settled weather from Tuesday onwards next week.

So let's take a look at the thunderstorm map for today and you can see there's thunderstorms possible or likely across many areas across central and eastern Australia and even up towards the Kimberley as well. But the focus for today is this yellow area through central Queensland, where severe thunderstorms are again possible this afternoon. And indeed, as we record around midday on Thursday, we already have a couple of thunderstorm warnings current up through central Queensland there around the Emerald area. Now whilst while the focus is around central Queensland here, we can't forget these other areas with more general thunderstorm risk through today.

Now the amount of moisture in the atmosphere at the moment, this is our precipitable water map, which shows how much moisture is in the atmosphere. And these purple and maroon shades show that the moisture levels are more typical of February midsummer through Queensland at the moment than October or what we normally see during the spring so the atmosphere is really moist, really humid, there's a lot of water available there so even in the absence of severe thunderstorms, a few showers in the same spot over a couple of hours or a thunderstorm or two could produce quite heavy rain quite quickly, which will lead now to flash flooding. Because the catchments across southern, south-east and central Queensland are mostly now really wet.

A week ago they were quite dry, now they're really wet and ready to respond quickly to any rain that does fall over the next few days. So while the focus for today and indeed tomorrow through Queensland is through central Queensland, as we move into Saturday here, we can't rule out locally heavy rain leading to more flash flooding through south-east Queensland in the early hours of Saturday, potentially through parts of northern New South Wales as well so even in the absence of Severe Thunderstorm Warnings, that rain will have an impact quickly as it falls on what is now really wet ground.

Now, as I was saying through the rest of Saturday, there is also a secondary focus on the south-eastern states here, so we can see the yellow areas here in the thunderstorm map for Saturday through South Australia into western Victoria, around the fringes of Melbourne, the northern suburbs of Melbourne, maybe the eastern suburbs as well, could see a severe thunderstorm on Saturday afternoon.

Adelaide less likely to see a severe thunderstorm on Saturday because the trough that's driving these storms will have moved through a little earlier in the day, reducing the risk for Adelaide itself. But you can see a large area there that could see severe thunderstorms on Saturday, along with, as I said, that similar area through central Queensland before the focus moves back to south-east Queensland on Sunday and particularly on Monday and we'll get to that in a sec.

Now, what happens with this trough system as well is after that severe thunderstorm risk on Saturday, you'll see that really thicken up into a rain band later on Saturday and into the early hours of Sunday. So quite a bit of rain expected through parts of Victoria as that rain band becomes quite slow moving, probably over western Victoria in the early hours of Sunday.

Melbourne could see 30 or 40 mm of rain over the course of Saturday night and into Sunday, before that system clears off further east later on Sunday. And then what comes behind is much cooler air coming from the west, which will be quite a dramatic change. It's been a really warm week across South Australia, Victoria and Tasmania. Unseasonably warm temperatures over 30 °C in Melbourne and Hobart, which does happen sometimes in October but rarely for multiple days in a row.

It'll be much cooler next week, and that will be quite noticeable in the south-eastern states. Now on Sunday, the focus, as you can see from the red area here, really shifts further north and east along with that cold front as it moves further east during Sunday. So the red area here is areas where we're forecasting severe thunderstorms to be likely with damaging winds, large hail and heavy rain all possible through this large area, which includes Canberra there and up through western New South Wales, Dubbo, maybe Tamworth, Orange, up through western Queensland as well, up through Charleville, maybe Saint George, places like that as well.

So a widespread severe thunderstorm outbreak, likely on Sunday afternoon and continuing into the evening as well, maybe reaching Sydney in the east coast of New South Wales, although it's a lower chance as the storms will reach that much later in the day and possibly reaching Brisbane as well. So severe thunderstorms possible again for Brisbane and the Gold Coast and much of south-east Queensland during Sunday.

So that's the focus on Sunday. We see that develop in the weather map here. The storms will be connected to and just ahead of this trough system here as it moves through western New South Wales on Sunday, and we'll see that track further up the coast later on Sunday and then provide the focus, I should say, for Monday's storm action, which again, we've got a red area here as well for Monday, which is quite a way out for us to have a severe thunderstorm likely area, it being Friday.

Looking ahead to Monday, we're already forecasting severe storms likely through the Northern Rivers of New South Wales and up into parts of south-east Queensland as well. So this is your more typical spring thunderstorm outbreak by this stage with that cold front line through northern New South Wales bringing a southerly change up the coast, which we'll see here.

So as we start the day on Monday, we can see the trough moving through northern New South Wales and then see this cold front whip up the coast on Sunday. On Monday afternoon, rather, that can be the focus for severe storms through those areas of the Northern Rivers and south-east Queensland that we saw on the thunderstorm map, roughly in that magenta area there.

So a multi-day severe storm outbreak on the way with different focuses on different days through the south-east on Saturday, western New South Wales on Sunday and then south-east Queensland and north-east New South Wales on Monday. So if you live in those areas. Keep up to date with the weather across the weekend. It will change rapidly. We will issue warnings repeatedly which will update and move areas quickly.

So keep an eye on the warnings, keep an eye on the radar and keep an eye on the skies too as you move around on the weekend. You can find the latest on our website, on our app and follow our social media channels for more. Thanks! Have a great weekend and stay safe!