A major new dataset released via the Human Climate Horizons (HCH) data platform by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) Human Development Report Office, in collaboration with the Climate Impact Lab, warns that climate change is set to dramatically undermine agricultural productivity and human well-being worldwide, with some of the greatest risks concentrated in countries least able to adapt.
The latest HCH data indicate that over 90 percent of the assessed countries (161 out of 176 analyzed countries) are projected to experience declines in staple-crop yields by the end of the century-even after accounting for empirically observed farmer adaptation.
"Climate change is not just an environmental challenge-it is a profound development crisis," said Pedro Conceição, Director of UNDP's Human Development Report Office. "High agricultural yields are important not just for food security, they also sustain livelihoods and open pathways for economic diversification and prosperity. Threats to agricultural yields are threats to human development today and in the future."
Robust data and global coverage
The new projections (sourced from Hultgren et al, 2025) link climate variables to agricultural yields for six staple crops-maize, rice, wheat, soy, cassava, and sorghum- spanning the globe. The source projections examined how farmers are likely to adapt under two different climate scenarios: one where emissions are moderate and one where they remain high. The HCH analysis focuses on human development implications and examines three time periods: the near term (2020-2039), mid-century (2040-2059), and the end of the century (2080-2099), providing data for more than 19,000 subnational regions in over 100 countries. Together, these data provide a high-resolution, evidence-based view of how rising temperatures and emissions trajectories could reshape global food systems and human development outcomes.
Low-Human Development Index countries face some of the steepest losses
The data show that the world's poorest countries face some of the steepest losses in agricultural productivity, with median national crop yields projected to decline by around 25-30 percent by the end of the century under very high emissions. Sub-Saharan Africa and parts of Asia are especially vulnerable, where farmers depend heavily on rainfall rather than irrigation and have fewer resources to adapt to changing conditions.
Meanwhile, the "breadbasket" economies-including major wheat and soy producers-are not insulated. Under severe warming, they show the largest yield loses with declines in these regions reaching 40 percent, with potential ripple effects on food prices, trade, and global stability.
Urgent call for equitable climate action
The findings echo the Belém Declaration on Hunger, Poverty, and Human-Centred Climate Action, ahead of COP30 in Brazil, emphasizing that food systems and equity must be central to global climate strategies.
The research also shows that reducing emissions matters: when countries cut emissions to moderate levels, crop losses by 2100 are less than half those under high emissions scenarios. This holds true across wealthy and poor countries alike, demonstrating that decisive action on mitigation and adaptation can dramatically reduce climate impacts on people.
"The pathway to a sustainable and equitable future lies in human-centred climate action," added Conceição. "Ensuring that every person retains access to sufficient, nutritious, and reliable food is not only a matter of survival-it is a cornerstone of human dignity and development."
