New Zealand's population passes 5 million

New Zealand's resident population provisionally reached 5 million in March 2020, Stats NZ said today.

"This is a significant event for New Zealand," population insights senior manager Brooke Theyers said.

"It is also the fastest million in our history, taking 17 years after reaching 4 million in 2003."

A precise date for the milestone will be available after the population estimates are revised to fully incorporate 2018 Census and census coverage results later in 2020, as well as revisions to international migration estimates. This could see the milestone date move slightly earlier or later than March 2020.

"It is most likely the 5 million milestone was reached by a migrant arriving by plane, but could have been reached by a newborn baby."

The estimated resident population is provisionally 5,002,100 at 31 March 2020.

Stats NZ previously indicated that the 5 million mark would be likely reached in 2020 .

Graph showing New Zealand resident population, 1900-2020. Text alternative available below graph.

Text alternative for graph of New Zealand resident population, 1900-2020

Recent migration tips population past 5 million

Population growth has been significant since 2013, with half a million people added to the population over the last six years. On average, the population has grown by 1.8 percent a year since 2013, driven by net migration.

"The global COVID-19 pandemic has caused unusual international travel and migration patterns in recent months," said Mrs Theyers.

"Net migration has been boosted by more New Zealand citizens returning home after living overseas."

"At the same time, New Zealand citizens may have been unable or reluctant to head offshore."

The migration estimates are subject to revision, especially if recent migrant arrivals head back overseas once border restrictions are relaxed and international travel resumes . Any revisions to migration estimates will also cause revisions to population estimates.

How we got there

About half of the population growth from 4 to 5 million (between 2003 and 2020) was due to natural increase (births minus deaths), and about half from net migration (migrant arrivals minus migrant departures).

"International migration played a significant role in reaching the 5 million milestone," Mrs Theyers said.

"Migration was also significant in reaching 1 million in 1908."

During the 20th century, natural increase was the main factor growing New Zealand's population. However, net migration has been the dominant factor at different times such as during the early 1970s, mid-1990s, early 2000s, and late 2010s.

December yearNatural increaseNet migrationTotal population growth
190012695183114526
190113258652219780
190212739799220731
1903138801127525155
1904152931035525648
190516261930225563
1906165801284829428
190715716573021446
1908176041426131865
190918286471923005
191017084340820492
191117574420021774
191219074892728001
1913186231421932842
191419010514024150
191516057307519132
19161567363616309
191713449178015229
191842772464523
191913962105415016
1920186511113829789
1921188371332332160
192219141684425985
192317608682024428
192418446922227668
1925183761267431050
1926179541186029814
192717632242820060
19281680344317246
192915917279618713
193016183423820421
193116259-140914850
193214893-333111562
193314474-239112083
193413767-338610381
193513855-124112614
19361386323514098
193714819195716776
193814137209516232
193917026691723943
194021101139922500
19411956219119753
19421692672417650
19431567829515973
194418729136820097
194523034-77422260
194628835527734112
194732283375636039
194831940446236402
194931269801139280
195031251797639227
1951315401240743947
1952328792203354912
1953336461751151157
195435514745542969
195536434917645610
1956375531020147754
1957374851653254017
1958401301060950739
195940769506345832
19604245495043404
1961436631551059173
1962430981487157969
1963416611332754988
1964395161218651702
1965372151195549170
1966365411333849879
196738278-115537123
196837766-829429472
196938597-588432713
197037502835945861
197140261952649787
1972380842170959793
1973355013085066351
1974344343380968243
1975315271991451441
197630016-1202817988
197728109-257842325
197827479-260321447
197926762-26321441
198024694-1164213052
198125571-669118880
1982247501077735527
1983249531461239565
198426103388529988
198525048-1289612152
198626458-1145515003
198728459461333072
198830284-230457239
198931675-268428991
1990339271086244789
199134604651241116
199231725378635511
199331693773239425
1994306862200552691
1995301873617866365
1996297554313272887
199730355-393126424
199830286-70729579
1999290302289251922
200031482-1519416288
2001287793112259901
2002278056063688441
2003295134095370466
2004298771380143678
2005316161098442600
2006320811626548346
2007359421065146593
2008354511214647597
2009352011807353274
201036019-13135888
201131770-1593915831
201232253-1009822155
2013298171731247129
2014282354666374898
2015274525905286504
2016286396207890717
2017263255254978874
2018259284951275440
2019268515855685407

Note: Natural increase is estimated births minus estimated deaths, occurring in New Zealand each year. Deaths include war deaths occurring outside of New Zealand. Net migration is total movements for 1900-2000 and estimated net migration for 2001-19. Total population growth is natural increase plus net migration; this is different from population growth derived from population estimates.

Role of migration

Migration is a two-way street - more than 1 million people born overseas now live in New Zealand, while hundreds of thousands of New Zealand-born people live overseas, especially in Australia.

"International migration has also changed the composition of our population," Mrs Theyers said.

The 2018 Census indicated that over 27 percent of New Zealand's population was born overseas, a proportion similar to when New Zealand reached 1 million in 1908. The Māori ethnic population has grown from 5 percent of the population (1906 Census) to 17 percent in 2018. While the population in 1908 was dominated by settlers from Europe, mainly the United Kingdom, the population in 2020 is more diverse. In addition to significant European and Māori ethnic populations, New Zealand is also home to various Asian and Pacific ethnic populations, as well as growing Middle Eastern/Latin American/African populations. See also 2018 Census data allows users to dive deep into New Zealand's diversity.

The 5 million club

Other countries with populations between 5 and 6 million include Costa Rica, Denmark, Finland, Norway, Singapore, and the Slovak Republic.

Will we get to 6 million?

The latest national population projections (published October 2016) indicate that the resident population is likely to reach 6 million in the 2040s, but it could be earlier or later depending on birth rates, death rates and net migration. Sustained lower birth rates and an ageing population mean that the population is likely to grow at a slower pace in the future, than it has in recent decades.

New national population projections are likely to be released in late 2020 and will involve a review of fertility, mortality and migration trends over both the short-term and long-term.

How do we track the population?

We update national population estimates every quarter each year. The 'estimated resident population' gives the best measure of the population that usually lives in New Zealand, by age and sex. Visitors from overseas are excluded from these population estimates.

The Population clock gives a real time indication of New Zealand's population.

The estimated resident population is based on previous census results, with allowances for residents who were missed, counted more than once, or were temporarily overseas. The figures are also updated each quarter for births, deaths, and net migration.

Population estimates are revised after a new census. The 2013-base estimates have yet to be revised following the 2018 Census because of delays to the census coverage results. Estimates of census coverage are a critical input into rebasing the population estimates, and this rebasing will occur later in 2020.

Population estimates, especially at the national level, are reasonably accurate because of the high quality of New Zealand's demographic data. The revisions to the New Zealand population estimates after the 2013, 2006, and 2001 Censuses were, respectively:

  • down 29,000 (0.7 percent)
  • up 45,100 (1.1 percent)
  • up 12,500 (0.3 percent).

See also How accurate are population estimates and projections?

Summary of milestones

For a summary of how the New Zealand population has changed at each million milestone, see National population estimates at 31 March 2020 - Infoshare tables.

Text alternative for graph of New Zealand resident population, 1900-2020

The line graph shows New Zealand's population increasing from 800,000 people in 1900 to five million people in 2020.

The resident population of New Zealand reached 1 million in 1908. Two million was reached in 1952, 44 years after the first million. Three million was reached in 1973, 21 years after the second million. Four million was reached in 2003, 30 years after the third million. Five million was reached in 2020, 17 years after the fourth million.

Note: Figures for 1991-2020 are estimated resident population. Figures for 1900-90 are calculated by subtracting estimated natural increase and net migration from the 1991 population estimate.

/Stats NZ Public Release. This material from the originating organization/author(s) might be of the point-in-time nature, and edited for clarity, style and length. Mirage.News does not take institutional positions or sides, and all views, positions, and conclusions expressed herein are solely those of the author(s).View in full here.