Russian President Vladimir Putin hastily hosted a new round of mediation talks on Monday with the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan, as he is scrambling to reestablish himself as the only shot caller in the conflict or resolution thereof between the two ex-Soviet republics in the Caucasus.
After meetings with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev in the Black Sea resort city of Sochi, Putin called the meeting "very useful" but "I must say frankly that not everything was agreed upon, some things had to be removed from the final text of our statement".
"These are very subtle things, sensitive for both sides, and I do not consider myself entitled to reveal details without the consent of my partners," he told reporters.
The leaders didn't announce any breakthrough as expected, just reaffirmed their commitment to "resolve all disputes solely on the basis of mutual recognition of sovereignty, territorial integrity and inviolability of borders".
Following diplomatic efforts from the EU and the U.S. while Russia is distracted with Ukraine, Armenia and Azerbaijan have reportedly made significant progress at high-level meetings in Geneva, Brussels, Prague and Washington to begin drafting the text of a future peace treaty.
Putin blasted what he called “Washington Treaty” to sideline Russia last week, saying Moscow could broker a better deal.
“Washington Treaty” is likely a reference to “time-bound and measurable steps to support the peace process” U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced after hosting foreign ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan in Washington.
Russia has long sought to undermine Western efforts and direct contacts between Azerbaijan and Armenia to make sure the two countries stay in its good graces.
The decades-old conflict between the two neighbours - as other Russian-created volatile hotspots in former Soviet countries - make the conflicting countries vulnerable to Moscow’s pressure and allows the Kremlin to throw itself into a powerbrokering role and maintain significant leverage in the entire region.
To many observers, Russia's strategy has been to indefinitely manage rather than help resolve the conflict to fulfil its vested interests (Russia also has an unchecked ‘peacekeeping mandate’ which would likely be ended or replaced by an international mission by any peace deal).
Putin recently dismissed French President Emmanuel Macron's description of Russia's role as "destabilising" in the ongoing peace process between the two countries.
Armenia and Azerbaijan have fought two devastating wars, in the 1990s and in 2020, over the Nagorno-Karabakh region, internationally recognised as part of Azerbaijan, but until 2020 largely controlled by the majority ethnic Armenian population.
At the demise of the Soviet Union, ethnic Armenian separatists captured the mountainous region and some adjacent districts from Azerbaijan. The conflict claimed around 30,000 lives between 1990 and 1994.
Azerbaijan reclaimed most of the lost territory, including all of the adjacent districts from Armenia in the 2020 war that killed near 7,000 people on both sides with Russia securing a last-minute 2,000-strong ‘peacekeeping mandate’.
In September 2022, fresh border clashes killed near 300 people, triggering a more active stance from the Western leaders amid Russia's invasion of Ukraine. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken accused Russia of “trying to stir the pot”.
