Key Facts:
· * More regional Victorians are living in at-risk tenancies than renters living in metro Victoria.
· * Property managers reported that 7.58% of nearly 3,500 tenancies in regional Victoria are at risk of failure that could lead to these households becoming vulnerable to homelessness.
· * Research is based on Australasia's only tenancy sustainment survey of property managers.
New research from the Tenancy Skills Institute reveals that more regional Victorians are living in at-risk tenancies in the private rental market than renters living in metro Victoria, according to data from its 2026 research paper.
The research paper, entitled "Two Tides of Homelessness: Can we change course from surging to receding tides?", includes data from Australasia's only tenancy sustainment survey of property managers who collectively manage over 125,000 tenancies.
The survey seeks to understand property managers' valuable insights into the risk of households exiting the private rental market into homelessness and how to engage the real estate profession in early intervention to sustain tenancies.
Survey partners include the state's peak real estate industry body, the Real Estate Institute of Victoria and Victorian-based real estate industry leader Mitchell PT: Training and Coaching Experts for Property Managers. Regional property managers reported that 7.58% of nearly 3,500 tenancies in regional Victoria are at risk of failure that could lead to these households becoming vulnerable to homelessness. In comparison, metro property managers reported that 5.64% of over 6,500 tenancies were at risk of failure.
This brings the Victorian state average to just under the national average by a slim 0.39 per cent.
Compared with Victorian survey responses from the Tenancy Skills Institute's 2025 survey, Victoria is the only locality within the Australasian survey to show a decrease from last year's data, aside from an early intervention trial in Queensland that has delivered a significantly reduced number of at-risk tenancies.
Victorian property managers reporting this year that rental arrears are the primary contributing factor at over 44 per cent and properties being sold and a lack of rental stock at over 37 per cent, the second highest amongst all localities surveyed.
Jacob Caine, President, Real Estate Institute of Victoria, says, "The broad description of a Victorian rental market in which both renters and rental providers are under considerable pressure reflects the REIV's data, analysis and market feedback. Renters continue to experience affordability pressures and limited choice, while rental providers have faced increased financing, taxation, insurance, maintenance and regulatory compliance costs."
PM Assist: a way forward.
The Queensland Early Intervention Case Study presented in the research paper highlights that a reduction in at-risk tenancies of nearly two-thirds can be achieved when early intervention strategies that use the Tenancy Skills Institute's online referral portal, PM Assist, are implemented. In Victoria, this could reduce the state's risk level to 2.23% and provide an opportunity to take pressure off an overloaded specialist homelessness system.
In the Queensland example, PM Assist, the Tenancy Skills Institute's online referral portal, has facilitated the referral of over 700 tenancies (and over 1,500 people) to support since its inception in February 2024. One community organisation reports 90% of tenancies they have supported via PM Assist referrals have been sustained: 50 households in just over six months.
Paul Tommasini, CEO, Tenancy Skills Institute says, "Our 2026 research paper provides insights into the alarming scale of tenancies at risk of failing in the private rental market right now. A challenge that lies before us, as homelessness services, as government and as a community.
Building stronger relationships between the real estate industry, which can identify the issues in a tenancy early, in partnership with the community sector, is key to solving this. And the early intervention pathways facilitated by PM Assist offer a viable way forward.
Ahead of the Victorian state government election later this year, all candidates should consider improved policy settings that will enhance early intervention pathways for at-risk tenancies in partnership with the real estate industry.
Our research shows that property managers in Victoria are overwhelming in support of keeping people in their tenancies."
A brief overview of the data is attached. Read the full research paper here: https://acrobat.adobe.com/id/urn:aaid:sc:ap:6e6726c7-4058-4404-9733-adf622e5d93f
About us:
About PM Assist Developed and self-funded by the Tenancy Skills Institute as a not-for-profit organisation, PM Assist enables property managers to connect renters experiencing challenges in their tenancies with support from a local community organisation. Awarded the REB (Real Estate Business) 2026 Innovator of the Year - Property Management Platform, PM Assist is recognised by the Australian real estate industry for its innovation in facilitating tenancy sustainment. https://pmassistapp.com.au
About Tenancy Skills Institute The Tenancy Skills Institute is Australia's leader in homelessness prevention and early intervention using an education and cross-sector partnership framework. Established in 2017 by inCommunity Inc., a specialist housing and homelessness service that has been leading solutions to address the issue of homelessness since 1982. So far, over 28,000 Australians have engaged in the Tenancy Skills Institute's courses endorsed by the real estate industry, upskilling renters with up-to-date tenancy skills to access and sustain tenancies in the private rental market. Through relationship-building with the real estate industry, the institute leads ground-breaking cross-sector initiatives for tenancy sustainment. From the award-winning PM Assist (a world-first online referral portal), on-demand business development services, and their annual survey of Australasian property managers, they are focused on creating better rental outcomes together. https://tenancyskills.com.au
