While most of us live in the present, Defence Scientist and Technology Group (DSTG) scientist, Vivian Nguyen, spends her time reflecting on what the next 40 years will look like.
Ms Nguyen has been foundational in the development of ATHENA, a world-leading enterprise-wide simulation, forecasting platform and workforce planning tools. Through ATHENA, DSTG can model and simulate the effects of today's decisions on the entire ADF workforce over the next 40 years.
After completing an IT degree, specialising in computer science, Ms Nguyen started a career as a Defence scientist at DSTG's Edinburgh site. Over a period of time, her discussions with subject matter experts and stakeholders who specialise in workforce planning led to the idea of ATHENA.
"We realised that there was a big gap in the tools available for workforce planners to use to make their informed, evidence-based decisions," Ms Nguyen said.
"Each had their own excel spreadsheet or simple forecast model, but there was nothing at the enterprise scale."
'To be able to accurately forecast the future state of the workforce, you have to fully understand the dynamics within that system.'
ATHENA forecasts personnel surpluses, deficiencies and skills availability. It predicts whether Defence will have the right people with the right skills to meet capability needs, and if not, it recommends recruitment, promotion and training strategies to achieve the workforce needed to meet future demands.
"What interested me from the beginning is the complex nature of the whole system," Ms Nguyen said.
"Military workforces are complex, closed systems with many interdependent parts. To be able to accurately forecast the future state of the workforce, you have to fully understand the dynamics within that system. That's a big challenge.
"The analyst in me is just curious and wants to fully articulate the constraints and moving parts within the systems, in order to accurately represent the system using modelling and simulation techniques."
The ATHENA suite of tools, which also includes ARETA and ARES, has not only been adopted by ADF workforce planners and training authorities, but also by Canadian defence scientists for their defence force. The United Kingdom and New Zealand defence forces are also interested.
According to Ms Nguyen, ATHENA can simulate everything from a very small workgroup to the entirety of the ADF workforce. The United States Navy used ATHENA to simulate the whole of its 266,000 personnel over 30 years in just a few minutes.
Ms Nguyen has been recognised for her foundational technical role and ongoing leadership in the development of ATHENA with the 2024 Minister's Award for Achievement in Defence Science.
Introduced in 1988, the award recognises original and outstanding contributions capable of enhancing Australia's defence effectiveness and efficiency.
'The analyst in me is just curious and wants to fully articulate the constraints and moving parts within the systems.'
Ms Nguyen was presented with the trophy by Chief Defence Scientist Professor Tanya Monro and Australia's Chief Scientist Dr Tony Haymet at a ceremony at DSTG Edinburgh earlier in 2025.
"My role in recent times has been providing the oversight, direction and vision; making the best use of the talent within our expanded team to suit the problems; and [encouraging] the team to engage with a broad range of stakeholders to take this project to where it is now," Ms Nguyen said.
"I've also been fortunate to have very supportive leadership, including my research leader, Steve Harrison, who has been very supportive of this work from day one. Thank you to my mentors, professors Terry Caelli and Bill Moran, for their guidance and sharing their wisdom with me in this journey."
To move ATHENA from being just an idea to a suite of decision support tools in the hands of military decision makers, Ms Nguyen said that clear communication at all levels of the Defence organisation was crucial.
"On the journey, we have been constantly communicating what we've done and what we think are the problems," she said.
"We've worked closely with clients to understand what it is that they're trying to solve every day. Building a trusted partnership has been key. We gained trust by conducting studies and doing lots of validation and verification.
"It's not been an easy feat and I'm very grateful for this opportunity to develop ATHENA, and I thank all of them for their support."
