Seven decisions for new perspective on agriculture

The researchers call for a long-term perspective without delaying the implementation of required nature and environmental policies. When they look at the bigger picture, they see a number of developments. They know that the world population will continue to grow in the coming decades and wish to feed all these people in a sustainable way. Moreover, the Netherlands is one of the most fertile regions on the planet. Dutch knowledge, technology and starting materials contribute to food production across the globe. At the same time, our Dutch agricultural system is reaching its agronomical, societal, ecological and economic limits. In the Netherlands, we have made all manner of plans and agreements for the future of housing, energy supply and other sectors, but a long-term perspective for agriculture is lacking.

Seven issues

For their presentation Wageningen Perspectives on Agriculture and Nature (WPAN), the researchers analysed a number of studies and perspectives of Wageningen scientists. This shows them that a number of issues stand out: substantial issues that come with difficult decisions. They have arrived at seven such issues. They do not claim that these are the ultimate seven issues; there may be more. They do know, however, that each issue requires a decision and that each decision has advantages and disadvantages?

As a society, we must determine what long-term goals need to be achieved by the agricultural sector. How do we ensure food security while simultaneously reducing climate change and loss of biodiversity? How do we achieve economically vital rural areas, improved water quality and animal welfare? Far-reaching international agreements have been made regarding the nitrogen and climate goals the Dutch government has set. Within the EU's Green Deal, for example. However, within these limits, the government has yet to make choices as to how Dutch agriculture can develop.

Issue 1: how will the Netherlands contribute to the

global food issue?

Will Dutch farmers restrict their production to the Dutch market in short chains? Or is the Dutch agricultural sector a part of the European food strategy? In that strategy, the Netherlands produces that in which it excels, such as dairy, vegetables and potatoes, for consumers within the London-Paris-Berlin triangle. This second role requires a larger farming area and higher productivity, within the environmental framework, of course. As a third option, the Netherlands contributes at an international level by focusing on starting materials (vegetable seeds, seed potatoes), technology and knowledge. This third role may also demand less land in the Netherlands, but poses higher demands on soil quality, water availability, labour and crop health.

Issue 2: what role does animal production play in the

Netherlands?

Will we continue to use our animal production to meet the European and global demand for high-value proteins? Or will our animals serve only to process grass and waste streams? In the latter case, we will cease importing animal feed (soy, grain), reducing the cattle population. The manure surplus will also disappear in this case. This, however, hinges on consumers eating significantly less meat (view item 5).

Issue 3: what moral position do animals have within our

food supply?

What rights do we give animals, and to what degree can we exploit animals for our food requirements, and under what conditions? What would a more animal-friendly livestock sector look like?

Issue 4: how are we to achieve the climate and nature

goals?

The Netherlands agreed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture and industry by half in 2050. That leaves 50% of the emissions. How will the Netherlands compensate for these emissions to achieve climate neutrality? Moreover, the Biodiversity agreement means the Netherlands will implement additional policies, such as 30% protected nature in 2030. Will the Netherlands plant extra forests or designate areas as nature reserves to meet these goals? Both are near impossible. Or, will our densely populated delta exchange climate and nature goals with other countries? The Netherlands, with its higher agricultural production capacity, could work with other European countries that are less densely populated and have room for extra forests. Thus, they could join forces to achieve the climate, nature and food goals together.

Issue 5: can we drive consumer behaviour, and do we want to?

Will we hold on to freedom of choice without (fully) including the adverse nature and environmental effects in the price of foods? Or will we limit the consumers' options to achieve nature and environmental goals and combat inequity? In the latter case, food prices will rise. But will low-income groups still be able to afford this? Should we reach an agreement at an EU level? And, will supermarkets still be permitted to sell cheaper goods imported from countries with more lenient regulations?

Issue 6: will we separate agriculture and nature in the Netherlands or entwine the two?

Separating (nature next to high-intensity farming) calls for different measures and spatial planning than intertwining the two (through nature-inclusive agriculture and regenerative farming) and has a different impact on land use, biodiversity and productivity.

Issue 7: on what scale do we aim to resolve issues?

Will each country contribute equally to the food supply, climate goals and acreage of nature? Or do we want a different distribution within Europe? Will we implement national policies for agriculture, farming and consumers, or will we organise them at an EU level

Prudent choices

The WPAN researchers believe that we must make prudent choices on these seven issues because our choices determine our future agricultural system, nature policies and living environment. These choices determine how the soil of the Netherlands is used, the international position of its agricultural sector, the role and size of its livestock sector and the relationship between agriculture and nature. Furthermore, each choice has both positive and negative consequences. Delaying these choices will only serve to increase the severity of the issues we face. If we have the courage to make decisions, the Netherlands may well guide the world into the food supply of the future.

To the WPAN researchers, considering a perspective on agriculture and nature is a work in progress. They are not yet done. They aim to discuss these topics with various parties within and outside of WUR over this coming period. To be continued!