The latest updates from this morning show there is now an increased likelihood that this weather system will become a tropical cyclone before reaching the coastline.
Let's start with the current conditions. This tropical low pressure area is north-east of Cairns by a couple of hundred kilometres, and over the next 24 hours - through the remainder of today and the first half of Saturday - it will gradually approach mainland Queensland.
The system will move almost due south overnight, and during that time we expect rain to begin building along the coast, particularly between Cairns and Mackay. Persistent and heavy falls could set in, especially on Saturday morning.
This map comes to a close at 6 pm on Saturday, and at that point it's likely we'll still be dealing with a tropical low pressure area. However, on Saturday evening there is now a high risk of tropical cyclone development, meaning the system could become a Category 1 tropical cyclone late Saturday.
At some stage overnight - either very late Saturday evening or during the early hours of Sunday - the system is likely to cross the coast somewhere between Townsville and Ingham. Once inland, it will weaken back to a tropical low pressure area.
This means we may only see tropical cyclone conditions for a relatively short window, perhaps 6 to 12 hours, as the system approaches the coast.
Given the potential for tropical cyclone development and widespread severe weather, a number of warnings have been issued.
Starting with the Severe Weather Warning, this covers a very broad area. Parts of the Cairns to Cardwell coast could see heavy rainfall developing as early as Friday afternoon or evening, with most areas experiencing more significant rainfall from Saturday morning.
The warning extends from north of Cooktown down to Mackay. Within this region, six-hourly rainfall totals of 90 to 170 mm are possible, with 24-hour totals exceeding 250 mm and some locations reaching up to 350 mm.
Damaging wind gusts are also possible, particularly for exposed coastal locations, with gusts up to 90 km/h.
With the increased chance of tropical cyclone development, a Tropical Cyclone Warning has also been issued for a smaller area. This is a Flash Tropical Cyclone Warning, meaning it is the first cyclone warning issued for this event and impacts are expected within the next 24 hours.
The warning area, shown in dark orange from Port Douglas to Cardwell, is where gale-force winds may develop during Saturday morning. The watch area, from Cardwell to Hamilton Island, may see gale-force winds develop later Saturday or early Sunday.
As we move into the second half of the weekend, the focus shifts. While the tropical low itself moves inland over central Queensland, much of the rain will separate from the system and spread southward.
Heavy rainfall is expected across the Central Coast, Capricornia, Central Highlands, and potentially into south-east Queensland during Sunday and Monday. This multi-day rainfall significantly increases the risk of flooding.
Between Friday and Monday, the heaviest rainfall is expected near the initial coastal crossing point between Cairns and Mackay, with totals of 250 to 500 mm possible. From Mackay to Gladstone, totals of 150 to 300 mm are possible.
Heavy rain will also extend inland, with 100 to 250 mm possible across the Central Highlands. South-east Queensland, including the Wide Bay and Burnett, may see less rain overall, but there remains uncertainty. Current guidance suggests 20 to 100 mm, mainly on Monday and possibly Tuesday.
Flooding is already occurring across parts of Queensland, and additional rainfall will fall onto an already wet landscape. Major flooding continues along the Flinders River, though significant new rainfall is not expected there.
Major Flood Warnings are in place for the Herbert River, the Haughton River, and Major Creek near Townsville, with a Moderate Flood Warning for the Tully River. Additional rivers between Cairns and Rockhampton may also experience flooding over the coming days.
To recap the main impacts: significant flooding posing risks to property and life, widespread road closures and potential community isolation, fallen trees, stranded livestock, and agricultural impacts.
Please stay up to date with forecasts and follow advice from local emergency services. Thanks for checking in, and have a safe weekend.
Video current: 1:00 pm AEST Friday 09/01/26.
