But it is those hot winds that are going to drive Extreme Fire Danger for much of Victoria tomorrow. That is a concern, as conditions are very dry through the state of Victoria. So let us look at all of that in more detail.
Firstly, in terms of fire danger, today we are seeing High Fire Danger through much of South Australia, Victoria, even into south-eastern and eastern Tasmania and through parts of inland New South Wales. But as that front approaches tonight into tomorrow, we are going to see those winds really increase across south-eastern Australia.
That is why tomorrow we are seeing Extreme Fire Danger for much of western, central and north-eastern Victoria on Tuesday, with High Fire Danger likely through much of eastern South Australia and also central and eastern parts of Tasmania as well. That is all thanks to those hot, dry and windy conditions combining with extremely dry fuel loads, especially through parts of Victoria where, in some areas, we have not seen rain for weeks, if not months.
So let us look at that in more detail, firstly in terms of temperatures.
Today we are going to see that heat peak through South Australia, with temperatures into the mid to high thirties and even approaching the 40 °C mark out in western South Australia. That is typical for summer, not the extreme heat we have seen in previous weeks, but still a hot day and one that is driving those elevated fire dangers. That heat is also moving into parts of Victoria and New South Wales.
Then as we move into Tuesday, you will see that higher heat moving down into parts of central and northern Victoria, with temperatures generally in the mid to high thirties. Much cooler conditions will develop through southern parts of South Australia, thanks to those cooler winds. But it is those northerly winds that are driving the heat and the fire danger into Victoria, and also into Tasmania as well, with Hobart reaching 31 °C ahead of that cold front.
So let us look at that cold front in more detail.
Today it is out over the Great Australian Bight. It will be a warm to hot day in the south-east, and really warm in South Australia as those northerly winds pick up ahead of the trough and front system.
As we move into tomorrow morning, it is looking like the cool change will reach the Adelaide area around mid-morning, with cooler, gusty winds but a warm night ahead of it. We will then see some showers and possible storms with that change.
As the front and trough move into eastern parts of South Australia, showers and thunderstorms will really develop during the early afternoon hours and could become quite widespread as they spread further eastwards into western and south-western Victoria.
We are likely to see that wind shift move into the Melbourne area around the 5 pm or 6 pm timeframe, with some showers and thunderstorms. That will be followed by colder conditions and a band of rain behind the change as well.
Unfortunately, showers and storms will become more isolated and weaken over inland areas, particularly northern Victoria and south-western New South Wales. However, we should see a band of rain through southern parts of Victoria with and behind that front. That is likely to lead to around 5 mm to 10 mm in some areas.
By the time we wake up on Wednesday morning, this whole weather system will have cleared and many areas will be about 10 °C to 15 °C cooler than what we saw on Tuesday.
On top of all of that, we have the risk of severe thunderstorms through parts of eastern South Australia and western Victoria, highlighted in the yellow region. Storms will develop near and east of Adelaide late Tuesday morning into Tuesday afternoon, then spread into western and south-western parts of Victoria as we move through the afternoon.
If you live in this yellow highlighted area, thunderstorms could be severe tomorrow, bringing damaging winds and heavy rainfall. Those storms will weaken fairly quickly as we move into the evening and overnight hours.
Storms may approach the Mildura to Melbourne area, but at this stage they are unlikely to be severe. However, they are still worth watching if you are out and about tomorrow afternoon and evening.
We are also seeing that storm risk spreading into much of Tasmania, with severe thunderstorms possible in north-western parts of the state.
With these thunderstorms comes the risk of lightning, which could start new fires as well.
So with hot, dry and windy conditions ahead of the front, followed by showers, thunderstorms, rain and then a cooler change, make sure you are weather aware across parts of Victoria and south-eastern Australia over the next 36 hours.
You can get the latest forecasts and warnings via our website and app, and we will continue to keep you updated here at the Bureau.
Video current: 12:30 pm AEDT Monday 16/02/26.
