Severe Weather Update: Wet And Windy For South-east

We'll start off by taking a look at what's happening at the moment. And here we have a thickening cloud band with embedded patchy rain ahead of the front. With strong to gusty north to north-westerly winds bringing well above average temperatures. Whereas behind the front, winds shifting cooler westerly with showers and isolated storms.

Now we've already seen wind gusts in excess of 100km/hr through parts of the Grampians and also through the Melbourne metro and eastern parts of the ranges of Victoria. Now just focusing on Victoria, we're expecting those winds to ease below threshold through western and central parts later this afternoon, but continue about the Eastern Ranges.

Now shifting the focus to New South Wales. Damaging wind gusts are expected to develop about alpine areas this afternoon, most likely this evening, and then that will temporarily ease in the early hours of Wednesday morning before re-intensifying and developing through a broader area through the Snowy Mountains and also the elevated parts of the south coast and the ACT. Also noting that there's also a really small area indicating that there's the potential for damaging winds through the Blue Mountains tomorrow as well.

Anywhere through these yellow areas, wind gusts in excess of 90 km/hr are possible, and winds of this strength have the potential to bring down trees, powerlines, cause power outages and create really hazardous driving conditions.

So here I'm just going to show you the winds that a 1.5 km above the surface. And they're really good indicator as to how strong the winds are expected to be through elevated parts such as the ranges, but as well the winds that could be brought down to the surface in any showers or storms. And as we move through for the remainder of this afternoon, we can see that front moving eastward with the wind significantly lighter in its wake.

As we move into Wednesday morning here, we have another trough that approaches south-eastern parts of South Australia, and noticing a strengthening of the winds through that area. And as we move through Wednesday, throughout the day, those stronger winds push into particularly about the coastal fringe of Victoria and then contracting eventually into eastern parts of New South Wales.

By the time we get through to Thursday morning, there is a peak of wind gusts with damaging winds possible south of Sydney, particularly through the Illawarra in a westerly flow.

Now moving into Friday, that is when we have the strongest cold front with the coldest air behind it, and here we can see it sweeping up with that southerly flow, pushing up, bringing another burst of the wet and windy weather, but also dropping the temperatures to well below average.

Taking a look at the maximum temperatures across the area, I just wanted to highlight that the coldest air is expected to reach Adelaide on Thursday and then moving to the Melbourne area during Friday into Saturday and reaching Sydney on Saturday.

Now, with all of this cold air, of course there is the potential for snow for tomorrow. We've got snow forecast about elevated areas, but as we move into Thursday with the cooler air behind it, the snow level drops down to 700 m for Tasmania and for around 1000m for the mainland. Heading into Friday night, particularly then into Saturday morning as well, the snow level drops even further down to 300 m for Tasmania, down to 600 m for Victoria and 700 m to 900 m for New South Wales.

This means that there will be areas that usually don't see snow, that may see a snow flurry. So this includes parts like the Macedon Ranges for Victoria, including towns like Daylesford. And for New South Wales, we've got the Central Tablelands as far north as Orange or Oberon, and there's even the potential for flurry about the Barrington Tops as well.

By the time that these fronts and troughs move through, there's the potential for 50 cm to 1 m of snow to be accumulated across the Victorian and New South Wales resorts.

Taking a look at the rainfall, again, this is the rainfall from now all the way through until Sunday accumulated across the region. And it's just showing that there's widespread moderate rainfall expected through the region, including across areas like south-eastern parts of South Australia and western Victoria that is still recovering from recent rainfall deficiencies.

The heaviest rainfall is expected about elevated parts, particularly the windward slopes, but also the windward coasts as well, including western parts of Tasmania.

With this wet and windy weekend coming up ahead, now's the time to stay up to date with the latest forecast via the Bureau's website, the app or social media. And as always, listen to the advice from your local emergency services.