The SDLAM has a strict deadline of 31 December 2026 under the Basin Plan, and for any projects to be counted they must be complete and operational.
Murray-Darling Basin Authority Chief Executive, Andrew McConville said some of the smaller projects will be delivered, and they've delivered some great environmental outcomes - including at the Chowilla floodplain in South Australia, Hattah Lakes in Victoria, and Gayini Nimmie-Caira in New South Wales.
"However, we can clearly see that many of the significant projects will not be delivered and we can expect a shortfall compared to the 605 gigalitres a year determined in 2017," said Mr McConville.
"The report includes a revised and reduced supply estimate of between 250 gigalitres to 350 gigalitres - this is a shortfall of between 255 gigalitres and 355 gigalitres.
"The evidence base used to inform the report was obtained from the New South Wales, Victorian and South Australian state governments, who are responsible for implementing the projects.
"The-final SDLAM supply contribution will be determined by the package of projects delivered by state governments, and continued collaboration will be essential to achieving the intended outcomes.
"The Authority acknowledges their ongoing cooperation in implementing the Basin Plan and their contributions to this assurance report."
In 2026, the Authority will reconcile and determine the final supply contribution from the completed package of measures.
"The MDBA will release a draft determination of the proposed Sustainable Diversion Limit (SDL) adjustment, and the public will have an opportunity to make submissions on the draft determination in late 2026," said Mr McConville.
The final reconciliation determination will be provided to the Australian Government Minister for Water by 31 December 2026 for consideration and decision.
