Kia ora and good afternoon everyone. It's wonderful to have the opportunity to speak with you all today.
Welcome to 2026, it's going to be a great year.
The economy is growing, the kids are almost back to school and, after a great summer break, just like Kiwis up and down the country, National is knuckling down and getting back to work.
I have one simple message for you today.
National is fixing the basics and building the future.
Today, I firstly want to speak about the progress we've made for New Zealanders so far.
Then I'll spend a little bit of time speaking about the global backdrop, and National's priorities heading into this year's election, as we present our plan to build the future.
It's been a challenging period for Kiwis and the New Zealand business community over the last five years.
Yes, we've made a lot of progress.
Inflation has fallen from over 7 per cent to just 3 per cent.
Interest rates have dropped considerably, with families re-fixing from mortgage rates starting with a 7, to those starting with a 4 or a 5.
Business confidence and consumer confidence has risen significantly, now translating into greater levels of investment and retail activity.
I know many of you will be frustrated that this recovery, now starting to blossom nationwide, has taken so long to get traction.
For many months it felt like the improving economic conditions at farm gates and on the main streets of Christchurch and Queenstown would never filter through to Queen Street, Newmarket and Lambton Quay.
And in the middle of last year, when emerging green shoots were rapidly cut down by tariff shocks and global uncertainty, it felt like we were back at square one.
That period was difficult, especially here in Auckland. But I remain of the view that we got the balance right.
There were calls at the time for a big fiscal stimulus and to open the immigration gates and pump up house prices.
As I spoke about last year, we can't risk repeating the sugar-rush economics of the past.
Rapidly rising house prices and more borrowing might have felt good in the moment, but in the long-run those actions ultimately just make us poorer as a society.
I understand that's been challenging in the near term, but it is encouraging a critical shift in the New Zealand economy, away from speculation and towards productive economic activity, supporting higher incomes and more jobs.
It was positive to see that in the latest GDP data published in December, it was manufacturing, exports and business investment underpinning the bounce back.
It's been two years of hard work - in government, from businesses large and small, and from every New Zealander.
But I feel more confident than ever that the recovery has now arrived and Kiwis can look forward to a year which is brighter than the last few.
Just last week, NZIER's latest survey showed business confidence at its highest level since 2014.
Business NZ's PMI indicator released on Friday shows growth in manufacturing is stronger than at any time since December 2021 and higher many of our global peers.
And while last year there were pockets of optimism in the South Island and in the rural economy, conditions now seem to be improving nationwide.
According to Westpac, Auckland is now the strongest region for consumer confidence.
And in the construction industry, which has struggled through a period of high interest rates and financial pressure, a recovery also appears to be underway.
Building consents are rising, up around 20 per cent in the last six months. And according to Seek, job advertisements in construction have risen by around 30 per cent in the last year.
In short, there's real cause for optimism. My focus now is translating that optimism into real results for New Zealanders in 2026: with more jobs, higher incomes, and the best possible shot at a better life.
Sensible spending and tight fiscal management is a critical part of our economic agenda.
At the half-year update in December, the Government confirmed a path back to surplus in 2028/29, supported by tight budgets in the coming years.
However, tight budgets have become standard practice for this government.
In just the last two years, our Minister of Finance, Nicola Willis, has delivered savings of around $11 billion per annum, equivalent to around $5,000 for every single household in the country.
I know generating those savings hasn't been easy, but they have provided the necessary headroom to deliver tax relief, invest in the frontline services Kiwis rely on and maintain a path back to surplus over the forecast period.
New Zealand simply has to get its finances in order if it is to achieve a long-term improvement in its economic prospects.
That's why there will be more savings in this year's Budget and no room for extravagant election promises.
Let's be straight up with each other.
Any party that wants to ramp up spending is being economically irresponsible.
Because the only way to spend more money is to borrow it or to raise taxes.
Borrowing more would lift our debt to dangerous levels, while raising taxes would snuff out the recovery and send Kiwis overseas.
So, National is going to campaign on being responsible managers of the economy, who make the right decisions to fix the basics and build our future.
We've had to also fix the basics on education too.
Like many of you in this room, I had an outstanding state education here in New Zealand that enabled me to work all over the world.
As Prime Minister, I am determined to give that same shot in life to every child growing up in New Zealand today.
But, when we entered office,
§ more than half of our kids were not attending school regularly,
§ 80 per cent of 13-year-olds were not where they should have been in Maths,
§ and half of them were not where they needed to be in Reading.
Now, in just two short years, we've achieved a huge amount.
Yes, we've banned mobile phones and mandated an hour a day of reading, writing and maths.
But thanks to Erica Stanford, we have also delivered a new structured approach to teaching literacy and numeracy and introduced whole new curriculums for Maths and English in primary schools.
Already, the number of new entrants achieving where they should be in phonics has gone from a dismal 36 per cent to 58 per cent. The number of students exceeding expectations has doubled.
There's more to do, but no doubt about it we are fixing the basics in education.
And take law and order.
Alongside the economy, the extent of lawlessness throughout New Zealand was the issue Kiwis were most frustrated by at the last election.
Between 2017 and 2023, violent crime rose 30 per cent, gang membership increased by 50 per cent, retail crime doubled and ram raids quadrupled.
Many of the business owners in this room will have had their own stores robbed, or dairies and liquor stores in their communities ram raided or robbed at knife point.
So, thanks to the efforts of Mark Mitchell and Paul Goldsmith, we embarked on a programme of major reform to keep Kiwis safe at home, at work and in the community.
We have cracked down on gangs and banned their patches in public.
We have delivered tougher sentencing laws, so offenders do real time.
We have given more powers to Police, and put more of them out on the beat.
There's more to do, especially in the Auckland CBD, where the Government and Auckland Council have agreed to focus more attention.
But the overall results have been exceptional - 38,000 fewer victims of violent crime, youth offending down by 16 per cent and ram raids down by 85 per cent.
When it comes to violent and retail crime, we're fixing the basics.
In short, we are in a stronger position as a country than we were just two short years ago.
But as positive as those results have been, just fixing the basics isn't enough.
Yes, because we have an obligation to leave a lasting legacy of prosperity and opportunity for our children and our grandchildren. But also, because, in a more volatile and unstable world, we can't afford to be complacent.
For 70 years now, smaller countries like New Zealand have been able to manage our relationships with other countries according to established rules.
At the same time, the rising tide of free and open trade has encouraged greater economic integration, dynamic new middle-classes in the Indo-Pacific and a wealth of new opportunities for New Zealand's export industries.
Today, our global rules-based system is rupturing.
I've spoken previously about the three big shifts that make for challenging times ahead for our world.
First, we are seeing rules giving way to power.
Previously, we could count on countries respecting the UN Charter, the Law of the Sea and the rules of global trade.
But in an age of sharper competition, we're seeing a pattern of countries respecting international law only when it suits them and ignoring the rules when it does not.
Second, we are witnessing a shift from economics to security.
National security demands are expanding. Governments need to protect their people and assets against economic coercion, foreign interference, cyberattacks and terrorism.
In the Indo-Pacific, there's a rising risk of a dangerous miscalculation.
The bottom line is, a country can't have prosperity without security, not least when the tools of commerce themselves require protection.
And third, efficiency is giving way to resilience.
Our future prosperity can no longer be treated as an inevitable by-product of global rules and institutions.
Trading arrangements are becoming less certain and less efficient, as businesses adapt to a world where tariffs and protectionism, once out of fashion, have made a raging comeback.
Against that shifting international backdrop, our Government has acted carefully and decisively.
It's why, in concert with our friends and partners, we are using what agency we have to champion our values and interests on the world stage - supporting Ukraine to resist Russia's illegal invasion and bringing the EU and CPTPP together to reinforce the rules of global trade.
It's also why the Government has agreed to significantly lift defence expenditure in the coming years.
Despite decades of under-investment, the men and women of the New Zealand Defence Force do an outstanding job, keeping Kiwis safe and promoting peace and security in our region.
But in a more dangerous world, it would be reckless to continue that trend and keep banking the dividends of peace.
Lifting defence expenditure means New Zealand can keep doing our part contributing to regional security, humanitarian assistance and disaster relief efforts.
And in a more competitive and cut-throat world, it also supports New Zealand to develop our own defence industry here at home.
Finally, we are capitalising on the geopolitical moment by acting decisively to deepen our portfolio of relationships, particularly in the Indo-Pacific.
In just the last two years, we've upgraded our partnerships with Singapore, Viet Nam, Korea, all the ASEAN countries and a range of other Asian friends.
We have maximised the opportunities from the EU and UK FTAs, while also concluding new deals with the UAE and GCC.
And, just before Christmas, we finalised a new feature to our relationship with India, with its 1.4 billion people and rapidly growing economy.
When many said it was impossible, we got on with the job of concluding a landmark Free Trade Agreement with India in less than a year.
That agreement eliminates and reduces tariffs on 95 per cent of New Zealand's exports, with almost 57 per cent duty-free on day one of the agreement coming into force - making our businesses more competitive, creating jobs, and lifting incomes.
We might live in volatile times, but this Government is nonetheless working at pace to position and secure New Zealand's interests offshore.
We're out hustling and talking to different partners, forging deeper defence and economic partnerships.
But New Zealand isn't alone.
Every country is facing the same challenges.
And New Zealand, relative to other countries, is well positioned.
Virtually everybody wants to do more with New Zealand.
We have what the world wants, we're a reliable partner, we have the values to which most of the world aspire and we're an increasingly confident nation with ambition.
That's ultimately good for our economy and our country's future.
But a more volatile and uncertain world underscores the importance of controlling what we can.
The more we are building our economy at home and developing and diversifying those relationships abroad, the stronger New Zealand gets.
We can control the energy and ambition we bring to building a future for every single New Zealander here at home.
We can control the posture and confidence we bring to asserting our interests offshore, making the case for our values and our future.
More than ever, now is the moment for decisive action.
Whether you're driving trucks, making coffee, herding cattle or getting ready to take on the world, I want to unleash the extraordinary potential of this country so you can get ahead.
Higher incomes, more jobs and a better shot at the Kiwi dream.
Ultimately, that's why I came to politics.
To leave a legacy of prosperity, ambition, hope and opportunity for our children and our grandchildren.
So, kids growing up in Christchurch, like me, can see a real future for themselves here at home - raising a family, building a career, or starting a business.
For two years, National has been fixing the basics.
Now heading into the election this year, National will campaign on a bold plan to build the future and leave a legacy of prosperity and opportunity for future generations.
That will include three big changes already partly underway: KiwiSaver reform, NCEA reform, and RMA reform.
Each represent a generational challenge facing the country and each have been put off for far too long by governments unable or unwilling to confront them.
But the country is impatient of waiting for a future, that without serious reform, may never arrive.
National has a vision - of a more prosperous, confident future, with more opportunity for every single New Zealander.
And we intend to make that vision a reality.
First, KiwiSaver.
If we're serious about building the future, we need to increase our level of ambition for retirement savings.
You might have seen last year, National launched its first election policy - to gradually increase employer and employee contributions over time, rising to 6 per cent each by 2032, and a combined contribution of 12 per cent, matching Australia.
It's a policy driven by several objectives.
First, to support New Zealanders' financial security, against a backdrop of an aging society and an inevitable lift in the retirement age.
Second, to establish a spine of national capital, sheltered from the winds of financial and political change offshore, and available to invest in the businesses and infrastructure here at home that we will need to become richer as a society.
And third, to improve the returns from work and make New Zealand a more attractive place to build a career and raise a family, by closing the gap with Australia on superannuation contributions.
We have announced these changes early, so employers and employees have plenty of time to prepare, but over time we expect they will lead to much larger retirement balances.
For a 21-year-old earning $65,000, and making default contributions in line with the changes already delivered at this year's Budget, they could expect to retire with around $1 million in their KiwiSaver account by the time they turn 65.
Following National's proposed changes, that same individual could expect their KiwiSaver balance to be around $400,000 larger - or around $1.4 million in total - assuming they increase their contributions to the planned higher default rates over time.
That's a big change, it's critical to our plan to build the future, and it will only happen with a National Government after this year's election.
Second, is the proposed end of NCEA.
Education is a critical part of our plan to achieve a step-change in the New Zealand economy, enabling investment in digitalisation, technology and, ultimately, higher paying jobs that improve our collective quality of life.
And as I spoke about earlier, our Government's education reform programme is already well underway in primary and intermediate schools.
When those students reach secondary school, the national qualification they ultimately receive should reflect the same high standards and ambition we expect throughout their earlier years of education.
In August last year, Erica Stanford and I announced our plans to do exactly that and replace NCEA.
The truth is that while NCEA was designed to be flexible, for many students that flexibility has encouraged a focus on just getting the qualification, coming at the cost of developing the critical skills and knowledge they need for future study, training or employment.
Consultation is now underway on the new qualification - which will come with clearer grades out of 100, stronger vocational pathways, and high standards for literacy and numeracy.
While Erica is working around the clock to make these changes a reality, they won't be bedded in for some time.
The first cohort to sit the new qualifications are only starting high school in the coming weeks.
These are big changes that are critical to our plan to build the future.
If you want education reform that gives your children the very best possible shot in life, then you need a National Government.
Third, resource management reform.
In two years, Chris Bishop has delivered more reform to the resource management environment than any other Minister has achieved in decades.
A suite of changes to national direction, enabling greater development of housing, renewable energy, aquaculture and mining.
Fast Track legislation, now consenting major projects, like the gold mine at Waihi, or the port expansion here in Auckland, in a matter of months rather than years.
And two new bills, designed to unshackle growth and development in this country, by replacing the Resource Management Act in its entirety.
Those bills are expected to pass later this year following a robust Select Committee process.
And once they do, we're expecting immediate results with around half of all resource consents no longer required, promoting growth and development from day one.
But passing the legislation is just the start.
Over time, more and more of the regime will be managed through national standards, setting out guardrails for the development of everything from agriculture to mining to apartment buildings.
I'll be blunt.
I want - and you should want - National Ministers writing those rules, so we have a resource management regime which allows New Zealanders to build the future.
And the only way to build that future is with a National Government.
In conclusion, National is on a mission to fix the basics and build the future and we have made tremendous progress so far.
An end to the era of wasteful spending - supporting lower inflation and lower interest rates.
More visible policing, and a tougher stance on law and order, driving down violent crime, retail crime, ram raids and youth offending.
Stronger achievement in our classrooms, whether you're just starting school or needing an opportunity to catch up.
Now we're building the future.
Growing the economy, to create more jobs and more opportunities for Kiwis, with rising exports, investment and productivity.
Spending your money carefully so we don't burden our grandchildren with more debt.
Upgrading the roads, schools and hospitals you rely on, and delivering resource management reform that makes it easier for your businesses to get to construction sooner.
Supporting New Zealanders' financial security for the long term, with greater levels of savings and investment.
More hope, more opportunity, more ambition, and ultimately greater prosperity - so that you, and your family, can get ahead.
Thank you.
