Origin Logistics Technology Outlook 2026 reveals that operators are getting systems ready for AI, but fewer than half can show what their technology returns and only one in four can see every job, its status and its cost in one live view.
AUCKLAND and SYDNEY, 14 October 2026: Despite high fuel costs and a run of business failures across the sector, two thirds of freight and logistics operators in New Zealand and Australia (68%) expect to spend more on technology in the next 12 months, up from 52% in 2025. Cost reduction and efficiency is the most common reason to invest, named by 77%, according to the Origin Logistics Technology Outlook 2026.
Getting systems ready for AI and automation is a big part of that spend. 41% name enabling AI or automation as a reason to invest, and the share of operators running AI in production has almost doubled in a year, from 15% to 28%. Alan Dowsett, Head of Origin, says AI is also changing how that technology gets delivered: the cost and time to deliver integrations, prototypes and development work have improved substantially in the past 6 months.
The survey closed on 4 September after six months of volatile diesel prices, and ASIC data shows insolvency appointments in Australian transport, postal and warehousing more than doubled between FY22 and FY24.
Technology spending is up, but proof of return is missing
Far fewer operators can demonstrate what that spending returns. Fewer than half (48%) measure what their technology investment delivers. Six in ten (61%) say they have full or most visibility across their business, but only a quarter (26%) can pull every job, its status and its cost into one live view right now.
"Legacy systems get the blame, and the money is there to replace them," said Alan Dowsett, Head of Origin. "I'm not convinced replacement is the answer to all problems. Most operators already own the data. It's locked in systems that don't talk to each other, and replacing one often just moves the problem."
"What operators can't see, they can't charge for or fix," Dowsett said. "When the job, its status and its cost sit in different systems, extras like waiting time, demurrage and variations slip through without being billed, and nobody notices until month end. Customer service teams spend their day answering 'where's my freight?' by phone and email because the answer is spread across three screens. Join that data up and you bill for the work you did, your customers can check their own jobs, and your people stop chasing information. That's what keeps customers coming back."
The survey backs this up. Operators with a single live view are nearly three times as likely to give customers full or most visibility of their operation (56% against 20%).
Replacing systems to enable AI adoption is a priority for many
Many operators are planning to replace systems anyway. Close to six in ten (58%) expect to upgrade or replace three or more systems in the next 12 months, and the transport management system is the one most often on the list (51%). AI is becoming part of the case: 41% name enabling AI or automation as a reason to invest, and a quarter (26%) say a current system can't support AI or automation. The track record is a caution. Only 12% said their last significant implementation landed on time, on budget and as expected.
"Where replacement does make sense it is the TMS," Dowsett said. "It's the system of record for every transport job, so it's where automation and AI either work or don't. Operators upgrading it to get ready for business growth and AI are making a sensible call, as long as the new system connects to everything around it."
AI is set to automate manual tasks
Operators are clear about where they would trust AI first. Document classification (51%) and route or load planning (40%) are the two decisions they are most willing to let AI make without a person checking. Most (82%) want AI to cut manual work, against 18% who name reducing headcount or cost.
"The operators we talk to want their planners and admin people doing more valuable work: looking after customers and handling the exceptions that need a person," Dowsett said. "AI-powered route and load planning cuts the hours a transport planner would spend building runs and the fuel burned driving them. And AI Document classification takes hours of keying off the admin team. These provide early returns with straightforward measures."
AI adoption is outpacing strategic planning
Use of AI is moving faster than the planning around it. Nine in ten operators have staff using general AI tools day to day, and the share running AI in production has almost doubled, from 15% to 28%. Only one in five has a documented AI strategy, and 7% can point to a clear, measured return.
"This year is different, because AI is changing how IT gets done, not just how it shows up as a feature," Dowsett said. "Integration that took months can now happen in weeks. New functions can be added onto legacy systems without rebuilding them, and a working prototype takes days, not months. Most of the AI in this industry arrived from the bottom up. Operators who measure their technology spend are four times more likely to have AI in production, and those who start deliberately now will be hard to catch."
Integrated systems, not budget, sets the leaders apart
The operators most satisfied with their pace of change are not the ones spending most. Four in ten are satisfied, and they are no more likely to be increasing spend than anyone else (66% against 70%). What sets them apart is how well integrated they are. Two thirds rate their systems as well integrated, against 18% of the rest, and they are more likely to measure the return (59% against 40%) and to bring technology to customers before being asked (79% against 52%).
"The operators pulling ahead aren't necessarily outspending anyone," Dowsett said. "They're joining things up and taking what they build to customers before being asked. This is the year for operators with a good plan to make the investment they've already made pay off: join their systems up and get one view of the operation."
Key findings at a glance
68% expect to spend more on technology in the next 12 months, up from 52% in 2025
77% name cost reduction and efficiency as a reason to invest
48% measure what their technology investment returns
26% can see every job, its status and its cost in one live view
58% expect to upgrade or replace three or more systems, and 51% their TMS
12% said their last major implementation landed on time, on budget and as expected
Nine in ten have staff using general AI tools, 20% have a documented AI strategy and 7% can show a measured return
The full report, including year-on-year comparisons and the complete survey results, is free at www.originsupplychain.com/outlook2026. Operators can still take the survey today and request a personalised benchmark against their peers.
About us:
Origin is the supply chain and logistics specialisation of Sandfield, a New Zealand software company that has built software for freight and logistics operators since 1989. Origin's software covers transport management, container freight stations, customer portals and finance for operators across New Zealand and Australia. Sandfield has more than 190 people, with its headquarters in Auckland and team members in Sydney and Melbourne. originsupplychain.com
