411 million people worldwide could move from poverty to basic security by 2030 if governments adopt context-specific 'prosperity floors' and focus on job-intensive growth, adaptative social protection systems and policies that increase wages, according to the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP).
Established poverty measurements identify people who cannot meet minimum needs. By contrast, a 'prosperity floor' identifies the minimum needs for people not only to subsist, but also to be able to withstand unexpected shocks such as a natural disaster or economic downturn.
The new benchmark will not only track progress in escaping poverty but also help safeguard against future setbacks, ensuring people remain secure and resilient in the face of unexpected emergencies.
"Crossing a US$3-a-day threshold is not enough if families are still one emergency-one illness, job loss, or climate crisis-away from being unable to afford housing, food, and essential services," said Haoliang Xu, UNDP Acting Administrator. "Our report demonstrates that, by 2030, 411 million people could move from poverty to basic security-if governments act together, and act now."
UNDP analysis across 126 developing countries finds that more than one-third of people in developing countries live below their prosperity floor. This means these individuals remain vulnerable, with a single crisis threatening to push them back into poverty.
The findings are part of a new UNDP policy brief, titled Poverty-to-Prosperity Transitions, released ahead of the Second World Summit for Social Development, which highlights strategies to ensure not just poverty reduction but sustained prosperity for low-to-middle-income households across the globe.
The report cautions that relying solely on traditional poverty alleviation policies, such as cash transfers and cash-for-work programmes, will not sustain progress.
Instead, UNDP urges governments to adopt a system-wide strategy that fosters job-inclusive growth, adaptable social protection, and fairer income distribution to leave no one behind.
For over six decades, UNDP has led global poverty reduction efforts across more than 170 countries and territories, advancing policies and programs that expand access to essential services, strengthen health and social protection systems, promote decent jobs, and foster social inclusion.
Across every region, progress on poverty reduction has slowed, and disparities have deepened. While the share of people living in extreme income poverty has fallen globally, nearly 1.1 billion people still experience acute multidimensional poverty, lacking access to education, health, and decent living standards.
Two-thirds of the world's population live in countries where income inequality has increased over the past decade. Poverty is increasingly concentrated in fragile and conflict-affected settings, and the effects of climate change and demographic pressures are compounding these vulnerabilities.
"With decisive, integrated action, we can break the cycle of vulnerability and deliver lasting prosperity. The past 30 years have shown that progress is possible. The next 30 must make that progress permanent-transforming poverty reduction into sustainable prosperity."
