He's Claims He's Not Jacinta or Dan – so will Ben Carroll Keep the Lights On?
Family First's Jane Foreman says AEMO's warning that Victoria and South Australia face electricity shortage risk once Yallourn closes (The Australian, 7 August) is the second test of new Premier Ben Carroll's promise that he is not Jacinta Allan or Dan Andrews — after he already copied Family First's call for a Big Build royal commission.
Mrs Foreman says AEMO's own modelling shows Victoria and South Australia risk "low reserve conditions" from July 2028, when Energy Australia's 1480-megawatt Yallourn plant — which supplies nearly a quarter of Victoria's power — is due to close, while Rystad Energy says only 1700 megawatts of wind capacity is under construction nationally, the lowest of any renewable or storage technology, and NSW is now expected to delay its own coal closures rather than risk the same shortfall.
"Ben Carroll wants us to believe he's not Jacinta Allan or Dan Andrews — well, here's his chance to prove it," said Mrs Foreman. "He's already raided our policy cupboard once for the Big Build royal commission. AEMO is now warning Victorians could be facing blackouts within two years of Yallourn closing, and the fix is sitting on the very next page of our platform: keep the coal stations open until there is something real to replace them."
Mrs Foreman says former energy minister Lily D'Ambrosio spent years insisting Yallourn would close on 30 June 2028 regardless of what the grid needed, but with D'Ambrosio gone and AEMO now confirming the risk in black and white, there is no reason left for Mr Carroll to treat that date as fixed rather than negotiable — particularly when a joint CSIRO/AEMO report found power costs could jump more than 50 per cent after 2030 chasing net zero, and AEMO's own blueprint shows renewables will fall well short of Labor's 82 per cent target by 2030 even in a best-case scenario.
"Every battery and wind farm AEMO can count still won't replace a plant supplying a quarter of this state's power, which is exactly why Rystad is now telling NSW to keep its coal stations running rather than risk the same hole in the grid," said Mrs Foreman. "If Mr Carroll is serious about being a different kind of Premier, item eight on our list is sitting right there waiting for him: keep Yallourn and the rest of our coal fleet open, unlock Victoria's gas reserves, and stop pretending a press release about batteries keeps the lights on in winter."
Family First's Eastern Victoria Region Legislative Council candidate Mike Brown says the risk to Yallourn is not an abstract line in an AEMO report for his region — it's jobs, power bills and the future of the Latrobe Valley communities that depend on the plant.
"Yallourn isn't just a statistic on AEMO's risk register, it's the backbone of jobs and power supply right here in the Latrobe Valley," said Mr Brown. "Every day this Government delays a real plan, it's families and workers in Gippsland left carrying the risk. Keeping the coal fleet open until there's a genuine replacement isn't just sound energy policy — it's the only responsible choice for the region that keeps Victoria's lights on."
Family First is calling on Premier Carroll to guarantee Yallourn will not close until genuine replacement capacity exists, adopt Family First's full energy policy of keeping every remaining coal-fired power station open, and rule out sacrificing grid reliability to a renewables target AEMO itself says will not be met. It's exactly why Victoria needs Family First in the Legislative Council after November — to make sure the Premier doesn't just copy the easy parts of our platform, but the parts that actually keep Victorians' lights on.
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