Professor Hongbin CAI, Dean of HKU Business School and Director of the Institute of China Economy, delivers the welcoming remarks.
The 11th HKU Quarterly Forum on Chinese Economy, hosted by HKU Business School's Institute of China Economy (ICE), in partnership with the Shanghai Jiao Tong University Hong Kong Alumni Association, was held on 31 July, at HKU iCube in Central, Hong Kong.
Amid intensifying global technology competition, and widening K-shaped economic divergence, this year's forum focused on the theme "Technological Innovation, Opening-up, and New Logic of Economic Growth" and brought together a distinguished group of renowned scholars and experts to exchange insights. The forum attracted more than 400 registrations from business leaders, academics, alumni, and students, and more than 10,000 online participants.
Professor Hongbin CAI, Dean of HKU Business School and Director of Institute of China Economy, in the welcome remarks said, "Now in its eleventh edition, the HKU Quarterly Forum on the Chinese Economy has grown into a platform of significant influence. The Forum is guided by three core objectives. First, it facilitates informed and constructive exchange to enhance understanding of China's economic policies across sectors. Second, it prioritises timeliness and relevance by focusing each quarter on issues of immediate importance for rigorous analysis. Third, it fosters open and inclusive dialogue, bringing together diverse perspectives grounded in participants' professional expertise.
Looking ahead, we aim to further develop the Forum as a platform that bridges academic and policy research with practical application, convening stakeholders from across academia, industry, and policy. While being rooted in Hong Kong and taking a broad view of the Chinese Mainland, we seek to deepen insight into China's economic trajectory and contribute to more informed policy discourse and sustainable growth."
Professor Zhenhua MAO, Professor of Practice in Economics of HKU Business School and Member of the Chief Executive's Policy Unit Expert Group in HKSAR, presented the keynote report titled, "The Dual Effects of Technology and Policy Coordination under K-Shaped Divergence — Can Technology Reshape the New Logic of China's Economic Growth?". In his presentation, Professor Mao provided an in-depth analysis of the opportunities and challenges facing the Chinese economy. He noted that while China's high-tech industries have demonstrated strong growth, traditional economic activities, including consumption, real estate, and infrastructure investment, continue to face downward pressure. This has resulted in a pronounced "K-shaped divergence".
He said that technological progress is undoubtedly a key engine of economic growth, but it cannot provide enough support to the traditional industries, and the adoption of emerging technologies such as AI is also creating pressures in the labour market. Furthermore, technological advancement alone cannot resolve structural challenges such as weak domestic demand and mounting debt burdens.
Professor Mao argued that technological development and macroeconomic policy should be mutually reinforcing. In his view, "Technology development cannot replace traditional macroeconomic policies. While prioritising technological advancement, China should make greater use of conventional macroeconomic policy tools within the traditional sectors of economy to support growth".
Two distinguished keynote speakers were invited to share their insights. Professor Heiwai TANG, Associate Vice-President (Global) of the University of Hong Kong, Associate Dean (External Relations) of HKU Business School and Victor and William Fung Professor in Economics delivered a keynote on the topic, "New Trends in the Globalisation of Chinese Enterprises Amid Geopolitical Reshaping". He noted that as export controls on high-tech products have increasingly become a tool in global technological competition, Chinese enterprises have adopted a new strategy to cope with geopolitical pressures.
On the one hand, Chinese companies are strengthening the autonomy of their domestic supply chains and increasing investment in research and development, supported by government subsidies, as well as to advance domestic substitution. On the other hand, they are actively expanding overseas, using international operations to diversify risks. Professor Tang also highlighted that companies prefer the more challenging "greenfield investment" model, under which they establish new factories and production capacity from scratch in host countries rather than acquiring existing assets. This approach tends to be better received by local governments.
He added that through this new model of "domestic capability building and overseas network expansion," Chinese enterprises can strengthen their self-reliance, maintain solid business performance, and adapt more effectively to the evolving global economic landscape.
Another keynote speaker, Professor Jie HU, Professor of Practice of Shanghai Advanced Institute of Finance, Director of FinTech Innovation Base (Nanjing) and Executive Director of Southeast Asia Centre, delivered a keynote on the topic, "From Wall Street to Web3: How the Fed's New Chair Will Reshape Global Financial Markets". He noted that the U.S. Federal Reserve System (Fed) implemented unconventional quantitative easing (QE) in 2008 to rescue the financial system on the brink of a liquidity crisis.
Since then, the Fed has repeatedly launched rounds of QE alongside interest rate adjustments to fulfil its dual mandate of controlling inflation and promoting employment. The frequent use of QE expanded the share of financial-sector money holdings within the economy, which in turn helped fuel the nearly two-decade-long bull market in U.S. equities. This was an effect beyond the Fed's statutory mandate.
He expects the newly appointed Fed Chairman to begin shrinking the balance sheet at an appropriate time and eventually return to the pre-2008 policy framework, under which interest rate management was the major policy tool. However, whether rates will be raised or lowered in the near term will depend on additional economic data, which is likely to emerge at the Federal Open Market Committee meeting in mid-September.
A roundtable discussion was moderated by Professor Hongbin CAI. Panelists included Professor Min SONG, Dean of School of Technology and Business at Shenzhen University of Advanced Technology, President of Hong Kong Institute for International Finance; Dr. Yong KANG, Director of Beijing ByteDance Research Institute; Dr. Mo JI, Chief China/ HK Economist of DBS Bank; Dr. Xiangrong YU, Chief China Economist of Citigroup, and Dr. Le XIA, Chief Economist for Asia-Pacific of BBVA Research, Research Fellow of International Monetary Institute at Renmin University of China. The speakers discussed about China's macroeconomic development trends, the future trajectory of high-tech industries, and the advancement of AI. They also examined China's position within the evolving international landscape and analysed the implications of these developments for the global economy.
