Canberra will be home to nearly 700,000 people by 2050, with the population to hit 800,000 in 2065, the latest population projections confirm.
Growth is expected across all Canberra districts. While the total ACT population levels in the latest report are largely consistent with 2022 projections, the most significant changes relate to the redistribution of growth across ACT's districts over the projections.
The updated projections anticipate where Canberrans will choose to live, and reflects growth in the Molonglo Valley, along Canberra's north-western edge, along the length of the light rail corridor to Woden, as well as a shift to growth in the Tuggeranong Valley.
Published today, the ACT Population Projections 2025-2065 show that the Territory's population is expected to increase by 319,000 over the next 40 years, surpassing 800,000 in 2065.
Starting from the December 2024 population of 482,000, the ACT population is expected to grow on average by around 8,000 people per year.
Migration is expected to continue as the main contributor of population growth over the next 40 years as the fertility rate is expected to decline.
While Canberra will continue to have a young population the projections show a moderate ageing of the ACT population relative to projections of other Australian jurisdictions, with migration continuing to play an important contribution to the age structure of the ACT population.
Treasurer Chris Steel said the ACT Government continuously planned and delivered services for our growing population.
"We're investing in our people and our city to ensure that, as our population expands, we continue to meet the needs of our community," Minister Steel said.
"We're delivering healthcare, when and where people need it; building new and upgraded schools in our suburbs; expanding the light rail network to Woden; and delivering more diverse and affordable housing.
"Planning changes, including the missing middle housing reforms will see more housing capacity in our existing suburbs to support our growing population. This will see districts like Tuggeranong growing not declining."
Minister Steel said the ACT's future population would determine the type of city Canberra would be in coming years.
"Understanding population projections are important for Canberrans to understand the city's future, and for many aspects of planning, research and policy development and advice," Minister Steel said.
The ACT's long-term population projections represent a significant body of work that is prepared using ACT Treasury's own in-house model, which was originally commissioned from the Australian National University.
The key drivers in the model are births, deaths (natural increase) and net migration (overseas, interstate and internal). A new feature of this report is the shift to a 'dynamic' rather than 'static' model of housing which better reflects the reality of new residents moving in to established suburbs.
The ACT Population Projections 2025-2065 are available on the Treasury website.
