Kyoto, Japan -- Global climate action based on the Paris Agreement is progressing, but concerns have been raised that the future projections and scenarios forming the scientific basis for these actions are biased toward a limited number of regions and research institutions.
Climate research teams have created long-term climate mitigation scenarios known as integrated assessment models, which map the technological feasibility of climate change countermeasures, their associated costs, and their long-term effects. Many of these are model comparison projects, a method in which research teams from multiple countries and institutions conduct model simulations based on similar experimental settings and compare the results.
However, only a limited number of research teams can participate in these projects, and the inevitable result is that they do not adequately reflect diverse global perspectives, in particular those of developing countries.
To address this need, an international research team led by Shinichiro Fujimori of Kyoto University has proposed a more open and transparent international platform for comparative research.
"Our goal is to allow researchers from a wide range of regions to participate, enabling less biased future projections and more reliable analysis," says team leader Fujimori.
The proposed system follows a clear process divided into four major stages. First, researchers propose topics that are reviewed and can be approved by the research community. Then, a protocol will be published describing which model experiments will be conducted along with a research outline. Scholars from around the world can then freely participate based on that protocol, and the scenarios and data created are shared in a common database. Finally, after analyses and quality checks, the results are published and made available for widespread use by governments, businesses, civil society, and educational institutions.
Including a wider range of researchers from more countries may lead to changes in future scenarios. Fujimori's team expects an increase in climate mitigation scenarios that take developing countries into greater consideration, providing a more balanced scientific basis for global climate policy. However, securing the essential training, technical support, and funding may be challenging. Developing countries in particular need diverse funding and long-term support to build the foundations of research systems.
The aim of this proposal is to gradually transition the entire research community to an open system while accumulating these experiences. The research team does not expect to change everything immediately, but they aim to lay the foundation for more equitable and effective climate policy by connecting researchers from around the world and pooling diverse knowledge.
"Climate change is a global issue, and research itself is easily influenced by politics," says Fujimori. "Research should be more inclusive, and while this may mean sacrificing efficiency to a certain extent, I sincerely hope that the scientific community will move in a better direction."
