Five years after the Taliban takeover in August 2021, Afghanistan's labour market is marked by profound structural changes characterized by widening gender disparities, increasing reliance on male employment, and the severe exclusion of women from economic activity, according to a new International Labour Organization (ILO) brief.
Overall employment is estimated to have increased by 14 per cent from its 2022 low, reaching nearly 8.5 million in 2026. However, employment growth has not kept pace with the expanding population. The employment-to-population ratio is estimated at 32.5 per cent, more than four percentage points below its 2020 level.
The increase in employment has been concentrated entirely among men, with male employment in 2026 estimated at around 22 per cent above its 2020 level. In contrast, female employment declined dramatically. After a modest reduction in 2021, it fell sharply in 2022 to less than one-third of its 2020 level and showed only a marginal increase thereafter. Afghanistan is estimated to have the second lowest female labour force participation rate in the world, highlighting the exceptional scale of women's exclusion from economic activity.
Large-scale returns of Afghans from Pakistan and Iran have added further pressure to the labour market, with many returnees entering communities already facing poverty, underemployment and limited livelihood opportunities.
The Middle East crisis poses additional risks through rising energy costs and inflationary pressures, with more than 70 per cent of Afghanistan's workers employed in activities assessed as having at least medium exposure to these pressures.
"Afghanistan cannot build a resilient labour market while such a large share of its population remains excluded from economic activity," said Tite Habiyakare, Senior Coordinator and Head of the ILO Office for Afghanistan. "Expanding women's access to productive employment, while creating opportunities for returnees, young people and other vulnerable workers, is essential for strengthening livelihoods and supporting more inclusive economic development."
The ILO calls for productive employment to remain at the centre of the policy response, including support for private-sector development, labour-intensive sectors and micro, small and medium-sized enterprises; productive reintegration of returnees; protection of vulnerable households from rising living costs; expanded access to productive employment opportunities across all segments of the population; and renewed investment in regular, representative labour force data collection.
