Systemic changes are needed across the entire agri-food supply chain to address the global impact of conflict and climate change on food shortages, writes an expert in The BMJ's climate issue today.
Elizabeth Robinson at the London School of Economics says although the world is still producing more calories per capita year on year, localised food shortages persist, driven primarily by conflict and also increasingly by climate change.
Conflict disrupts all aspects of food security, she explains. It can leave farmland abandoned or difficult to cultivate, displace communities, restrict access to markets, and reduce affordability, causing long term health impacts.
Robinson points to the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) and World Food Programme 2026 Global Report on Food Crises which identifies 13 hotspots where acute food insecurity is expected to increase, 12 of which are affected by armed conflict and violence, with risks of famine in Sudan, South Sudan, Gaza Strip, and Somalia.
More broadly, around 60%-70% of the world's most undernourished people live in areas affected by conflict, and 85% of those facing hunger are reported to live in conflict affected countries.
In parallel, rising temperatures and extreme weather events are having far reaching negative impacts on food security through crop losses, supply chain disruption, and food price volatility, she writes. In 2023, an estimated 123.7 million additional people faced moderate or severe food insecurity due to the higher frequency of heatwave days and drought months compared with 1981-2010.
Food insecurity has also been reported as triggering violence and instability, and increasing the risk of political unrest and conflict, and there is evidence of a vicious cycle where conflict worsens food insecurity which in turn worsens conflict, she adds.
Major conflicts, such as Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the US-Iran war also have global food security ramifications, particularly for countries dependent on food and agricultural imports from conflict-affected countries and shipping routes.
Climate change is making it ever harder to break the link between hunger and conflict, but Robinson points to steps that can be taken, focused on strengthening agri-food systems and protecting the most vulnerable populations.
Reducing global emissions, including in the agri-food sector, is essential, such as through a shift towards more plant based diets, and cutting food loss and waste; while diversifying supply chains, alongside greater cooperation and targeted support for farmers and vulnerable households, contribute towards building more resilient food systems.
She notes that short term anticipatory support, such as protecting local agriculture or providing cash and food relief to affected households, can reduce food insecurity linked to conflict and climate change. However, she says medium to long term resilience "requires systemic changes across the entire supply chain, from what we grow and how through to what we eat."
