Lima - The International Air Transport Association (IATA) today released a report (pdf), showing air cargo's vital role in sustaining global trade and supporting economic growth in 2025 amid severe trade policy uncertainty. Two key report findings are that:
- Air cargo enabled the frontloading of $157 billion US imports in the first quarter of 2025.
- Air cargo transported more than two thirds of global AI-related goods in 2025.
These activities supported global trade growth of 2.4% in 2025—well above initial forecasts by the World Trade Organization. Global GDP also expanded by 3.2% despite significant policy headwinds.
"Air cargo is a structural component of global economic resilience. In 2025, it helped businesses absorb tariff shocks, enabled rapid trade restructuring, and supported the expansion of artificial intelligence (AI) investment, helping sustain trade and economic growth in a challenging year," said Julia Seiermann, IATA's Head of Industry Analysis.
Frontloading Surge
In 2025, average applied US tariff rates rose to around 17%—their highest level since the 1930s—with frequent policy shifts and increased trade friction. Many companies used air cargo to pre-empt tariffs by accelerating shipments.
In the first quarter of 2025, US imports rose by $193 billion year-on-year—a 26% increase. The surge was overwhelmingly concentrated in air transport. The value of imports by air in the first quarter increased 81% year-on-year, totaling $157 billion (82% of the $193 billion Q1 increase).
Trade Lane Restructuring
In addition to the frontloading surge, companies began restructuring supply chains to reduce tariff exposure. US importers shifted sourcing away from heavily tariff-exposed partners, while exporters redirected shipments toward alternative markets—particularly in Europe.
Air cargo's ability to enable the rapid geographical reallocation of high-value and time-sensitive trade in response to policy shocks was clearly demonstrated. During the April-December 2025 period, air cargo benefited from expanding trade lanes much more than it was impacted by those trade lanes which contracted.
For the US, on expanding trade lanes, imports increased by $213 billion of which $174 billion (82%) was carried by air. Meanwhile, on contracting trade lanes, US imports declined by $257 billion of which $77 billion (30%) was normally carried by air cargo. In Europe, a similar pattern was observed: air cargo carried 48% of gains on expanding lanes but only 3% of losses on contracting ones.
Powering the AI Investment Boom
As AI investment surged in 2025, air cargo efficiently and reliably delivered high-value, time-sensitive equipment such as servers, data storage units, and memory chips.
In 2025:
- More than two thirds of the value of AI-related trade was carried by air.
- Air cargo consignments of AI-related goods grew 20% year-on-year.
- AI-related goods accounted for 53.5% of the total value of air-transported trade, while representing just 7% of its volume—highlighting the segment's high value density and strategic importance for the industry.
"The rapid increase in demand for AI-related goods in 2025 was met thanks to air cargo, allowing investment to translate into economic activity rather than being constrained by logistics. As economies increasingly and strategically rely on high-value technology goods, air cargo will continue to play a critical role in ensuring their timely delivery," said Seiermann.
> Read the full report (pdf)
