Key points
- Liquid fuels account for over half of the final energy that Australians use and represent around 30 per cent of our emissions.
- We import 50+ billion litres of refined petroleum products annually, 60 per cent of which is diesel. Australia uses more energy from diesel alone than from electricity.
- Domestic production meets about 20 per cent of our liquid fuel demand. Growing a local LCLF industry can support emission goals and help development of stable, sovereign clean fuel supplies.
Sharp fluctuations in the global oil and gas industry underscore the value of a resilient and diverse energy system. Against this backdrop, low carbon liquid fuels offer practical pathways for hard-to-abate, hydrocarbon dependent sectors like aviation, shipping and heavy industry.
Speaking ahead of this month's Renewable Fuels Summit , Dr Daniel Roberts, who leads CSIRO's Energy Technologies Research Program, says the motivations behind low-carbon liquid fuels – or LCLF - are an enduring catalyst for change. 
"When we talk about sustainable aviation fuels or low carbon liquid fuels , there are really two drivers," he says. "One is emissions reduction. The other is fuel security . These have motivated alternative fuels research and energy independence ambitions for a very long time."
Beyond electrification: tackling the hardest emissions
Electric vehicles tend to dominate public discussion about alternatives to hydrocarbon fuels and the related emissions and energy security aspects.
"They have an important role to play in their use cases, and we're seeing that uptake," Dr Roberts says. "EVs are definitely a good news story."
But when CSIRO looks at the emissions profile of heavy industry and transport, the biggest challenges lie elsewhere.
"It's the aviation fuel, it's the international marine shipping fuel , it's the diesel used at remote mine sites and farms," he says. "These are big impact areas that move, grow and sustain our economy and where electrification is unlikely to be able to do the heavy lifting, so we're looking at ways of supporting the transition to lower carbon versions."
In many cases there are renewable pathways to hydrocarbon fuels, in some cases – especially in shipping – non-carbon fuels such as ammonia also have an important role to play.
Two pathways to low-carbon liquid fuels
At the heart of this work are two broad pathways for producing low-carbon liquid fuels in Australia.
The first is Power-to-Liquid (PtL), or e-fuels: synthetic fuels made by combining hydrogen with captured carbon dioxide.
"Hydrogen plus CO₂, plus the magic of chemical engineering, equals jet fuel, methanol or diesel," explained Dr Roberts who represents CSIRO on the Australian Jet Zero Council . "There are also established pathways here where hydrogen plus nitrogen from the air makes ammonia, a zero-carbon potential with particular relevance to the shipping industry."
PtL plays to Australia's strengths, particularly its abundant renewable energy potential. But significant technical challenges remain.
"There's a lot of work to do in some of those technology blocks," he says. "It's still expensive, and not at scale, but we're doing plenty of work to make it ready."
The second pathway, which Dr Roberts believes can deliver impact sooner, is biogenic fuels: converting biomass and waste into liquid fuels .
"That's going to be ready much sooner and get us traction in the space quickly," he says. "And we're going to need all of these pathways – and more – if we're going to meet the volumes of demand."
Australia's opportunity, Dr Roberts suggests, lies in its diverse feedstocks. Forestry residues, agricultural waste, weeds, woody biomass and even urban waste streams could all play a role, while also potentially addressing land management challenges such as dryland salinity.
"It's about recognising the value in our waste streams," he says. "We have the opportunity domestically to build on existing technologies and make something really useful out of waste."
In order for this to be a viable option, it will need to be at scale. These are not boutique operations. They are "big power station-sized plants", Dr Roberts says: facilities processing thousands of tonnes of feedstock a day, or supported by hundreds of megawatts of electrolysers and carbon capture systems.
"The scale of it can be daunting," he admits but adds:
"We are seeing promising developments. CSIRO recently participated in a world first Australia–India trial to demonstrate the potential for agricultural waste to partially replace coal in steelmaking at scale to help reduce emissions and support progress toward lower emissions steel production.
"We are also working with the HILTCRC to derisk biomass gasification pathways to reduce the reliance on natural gas in heavy industry."
Reducing cost and risk to support deployment
Research in helping Australia navigate these challenges is twofold: bring costs down and reduce risk.
In the biomass pathway, that means research organisations working closely with project proponents, like HAMR Energy , to help ensure plants are well designed and operated.
"We know a lot about the fundamentals," Dr Roberts says. "We can work with them to manage the early-mover risk – so that even if challenges arise, they can be addressed without undermining confidence in the broader concept."
First-of-a-kind projects are typically more expensive, he notes, but that is part of technological progression, and early failures should not be mistaken for proof that a technology is unviable.
"The first time you do something, it's always harder and more expensive. But that's how you learn and improve," he says. "Australia has the opportunity to leverage international experience here to accelerate deployment."
In the PtL space, CSIRO's focus is on developing new hydrogen production technologies, more efficient carbon capture approaches, and better systems integration to reduce overall costs. Collaborations with multinational partners and the creation of new Australian ventures such as Hadean Energy are helping accelerate progress.
Building confidence for long-term investment
According to Dr Roberts, industry appetite has shifted markedly in the past five years.
Corporate commitments, national and international targets and boardroom incentives have prompted interest in sustainable aviation fuels and other alternatives – alongside renewed attention to fuel security in a volatile geopolitical environment.
But investment in large-scale facilities requires confidence – not just in technology, but in long-term policy settings. Companies considering 30-year infrastructure investments need certainty that customers will be there.
"Our role is to innovate and test and say: this is what's real, this is what's possible," Dr Roberts says. "Having a pilot plant you can see – where feedstock goes in and fuel comes out – helps everyone understand what's achievable."
As the renewable fuels sector gathers this month, the message is clear: a broad suite of technologies will be required to fix the dual challenge of emissions reduction and fuel security.
"We're going to need EVs. We're going to need alternative liquid fuels and broaden what we consider a fuel to include new approaches such as ammonia. We're going to need new things we haven't thought of yet," he says. "It all has to fit together."
For aviation, shipping and remote industry, the transition will not be simple or small. But if costs can be lowered and risks managed, Australia has the resources – and the scientific capability – not only to secure its own fuel future, but to help shape the next generation of low-carbon liquid fuels globally.
Discover more about low-carbon fuels at the state of Australia's energy transition technologies and the immediate challenges and opportunities we face as part of our energy focus to 2030 .
