TUNIS, November 26, 2025 - Tunisia's economy is showing signs of recovery, supported by stronger agricultural production, a revival in the construction sector, and improving tourism, according to the World Bank 's latest economic update, "Strengthening Social Safety Nets for Increased Efficiency and Equity" . Real GDP expanded by 2.4 percent in the first nine months of 2025, following years of moderate growth and the lingering effects of the COVID-19 crisis.
Growth is projected to reach 2.6 percent in 2025 and stabilize around 2.4 percent in 2026-2027. While favorable weather and increased activity in key sectors are expected to support the recovery, structural constraints-including limited external financing, subdued productivity growth, and low investment-continue to weigh on the medium-term outlook.
Regarding other macroeconomic indicators, inflation continued to ease for the seventh consecutive month, reaching 4.9 percent in October from a peak of 10.4 percent in February 2023. This decline was driven by lower global energy and cereal prices, with food inflation easing to 5.6 percent. The current account deficit widened to 2 percent of GDP in the first half of the year, mainly due to rising imports and flat exports, although strong tourism receipts and remittances helped mitigate external pressures. Foreign direct investment rose by 41 percent over the first seven months, mainly thanks to investments in renewable energy, supporting external stability despite limited access to international markets. On the fiscal side, the budget deficit narrowed to 6.3 percent of GDP in 2024, and public debt stands at about 84.5 percent of GDP.
The report's special chapter examines Tunisia's social protection system, with a focus on social assistance programs. The analysis shows that AMEN cash transfer program has been central to reducing poverty and inequality, with coverage tripling to reach about 10 percent of the population over the past decade. The report suggests continued efforts to improve targeting and regional equity and to expand digital tools. It also highlights the importance of widening economic inclusion and gradually extending insurance to informal workers, moving toward an efficient and equitable system.
"Tunisia has made important progress in its coverage for the poorest," said Alexandre Arrobbio, World Bank Country Manager for Tunisia. "In line with our focus on human capital and resilience in our partnership with Tunisia, improving the efficiency and equity of social safety nets could reduce inequalities and boost economic inclusion for vulnerable households."
Continuing to maintain macroeconomic stability and strengthen fiscal sustainability, while expanding well-targeted social protection, will be essential to ensure shared prosperity across the Tunisian population. Also critical is pursuing initiatives to enhance the performance of public enterprises and improve competition and investment conditions.
