Climate-Fuelled Bushfires to Cost Australia $6bn Year as El Niño Raises Risks

Bushfires supercharged by climate pollution will cost Australia's economy a staggering $181 billion over the next 30 years ($6bn annually), new modelling released today by former emergency service chiefs has found.

The report, Prepare or Pay: Counting the Cost of Climate-Fuelled Bushfires from Emergency Leaders for Climate Action, includes economic modelling from ConnellGriffin and shows:

• Australia is in a new era of fire, where major fire events are striking every three to four years as pollution from coal, oil and gas worsens extreme fire weather.
• The $6 billion annual bill includes the toll on people's health and wellbeing (32%), lost business output (25%), damaged schools and workplaces (20%), damaged homes (17%) and lost work (6%).
• Fire crews are doing more with less. Fire seasons are 21% longer than in 1979, shrinking the windows for hazard reduction burns and limiting the ability of states and territories to help each other. While firefighting volunteer numbers dropped by 10,336 between 2019 and 2023/2024, with paid positions grew by only 433.
• The more bushfire damage we prevent through better preparation, the stronger our economy will be over the next 30 years. Making fires a fifth less damaging could protect more than 5,600 jobs every year.

Founder of Emergency Leaders for Climate Action and former Commissioner of Fire and Rescue NSW, Greg Mullins said:

"Firefighters are heading into this summer with a hotter climate baseline combined with what's shaping as a record-breaking El Niño: a double act that could seriously increase fire risk in southeastern Australia. What worries me is that the 2027/2028 summer could be even hotter.

"We're now in an era where fire seasons are longer and more intense, property losses are growing, and once rare fire-generated storms are six times more common than they were 20 years ago. But we know that if we invest in community preparedness, we can reduce misery and loss.

"Governments have a clear choice: prepare now for worsening fires or pay later for the huge damage they will cause. Preparing now means building safer homes, stronger

community infrastructure, and better resourced fire services."

Mr Mullins said "As always, firefighters will give everything they have, but they need governments to back them for the long term. Political leaders must stop approving new coal and gas projects that fuel worsening fire weather and tighten national laws that do little to rein in polluting corporations."

Jessica Yu, Director and Economic Advisory Lead at ConnellGriffin said:

"You don't have to lose a home to pay the price for worsening bushfires. We have shown how these events are costing billions across the Australian economy when you count the farms that can't harvest, the businesses forced to close, the jobs lost and the toll on people's health and wellbeing. The figures in this report are conservative and they show that the costs are growing."

Report co-author, Climate Councillor and infrastructure expert Janice Lee said:

"The modelling shows for the first time what better preparation is worth. The more bushfire damage we prevent, the more jobs and tax revenue we protect, and the stronger our economy.

"Cutting climate pollution and preparing communities helps families and the economy."

Note - The estimated losses in this report do not include the loss of wildlife, ecosystems and cultural heritage. The modelling assumes the current high emissions scenario continues without major change. A full explanation of ConnellGriffin's methodology is available in the report appendix.