Consumer Confidence Makes Soft Gains

ANZ Bank

Consumer confidence rose 0.5 points last week to 88.8 points. The four-week moving average increased 0.8 points to 87.0 points.

'Weekly inflation expectations' were unchanged at 4.5 per cent, while the four-week moving average ticked down 0.1 percentage point to 4.8 per cent.

'Current financial conditions' (over the last year) lifted 2.3 points, while 'future financial conditions' (next 12 months) declined 1.7 points.

'Short-term economic confidence' (next 12 months) grew 2.7 points, and 'medium-term economic confidence' (next five years) decreased 1.9 points.

The 'time to buy a major household item' subindex increased 1.3 points.

"Consumer Confidence rose 0.5 points last week to 88.8 points. Across the subindices, household economic confidence in the next year recorded the largest increase, and on a four-week moving average basis, this subindex is now at its highest level since early May 2022, prior to the beginning of the Reserve Bank of Australia's hiking cycle," ANZ Econonomist, Sophia Angala said.

"The lift in this series may be supported by the de-escalation in US-China trade tensions last week. Domestic data pointing to solid wage growth in the first quarter and a resilient labour market may also be drivers.

"We continue to expect a 25 basis point cut by the RBA at its meeting this week. Rate cuts flowing through to household disposable incomes should support upward momentum in ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence this year but may be softened by global uncertainty."

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