Crypto market cliff edge: what if bitcoin breaks $30k

The persistent downtrend, subdued market activity, falling transaction numbers, and risk aversion on the back of negative events over the past couple of months have so far failed to ruffle the feathers of the majority of retail cryptocurrency holders clinging to their precious digital coins.

The entire market has been on a cliff edge trading within a tight range over the past weeks in lockstep with bitcoin with gradual downtrend in play.

For the world’s No. 1 cryptocurrency, US $30,000 level has been widely seen as the steepest cliff edge from which it once fell but managed to climb back.

After falling as low as US $29,080 on June 22 in response to a regulatory action by China was its lowest price and its first breach of the psychologically significant $30,000 level since January.

Although the recovery showed strong support at this key line as expected, upside momentum quickly ran out of steam as all breakouts were sold sharply, especially above US $33,000.

Yes, bitcoin could once again successfully test $30,000 as support and ricochet higher, as it has done before. A successful test of the support level would set bitcoin up for a rise to its next resistance level at $34,000, opening a new potential upside movement.

However, market sentiment seems to be flashing toward further drops.  So, if it breaks and fails to recover, there would be significant downside and US $30,000 would become an overhead resistance level, capping any short term upside traction.

As of press time, in Top 10 big caps, Bitcoin (BTC) is changing virtual hands at US $30,480, Ether (ETH) at US $1,804, ripple (XRP) at US $0.54, Binance Coin (BNB) US $282, cardano (ADA) at US $1.11, Dogecoin (DOGE) at US $0.17, ChainLink (Link) at US $14.4, UniSwap (UNI) at US $15.5, Polkadot (DOT) at US $11.4 and Stellar (XML) at US $0.20.

Why are psychological levels significant?

Numbers have mattered to humans  ever since the dawn of civilization, though some more than other others. Psychological levels in terms of  support and resistance are typically something that is “easy to remember,” such as a rounded-off number.

Largely shaped by human emotion and psychology, these rounded-off number are based on market sentiment and anchoring (a cognitive bias whereby an individual’s decisions are influenced by a particular reference point – For example, you think you will sell and exit the market if it falls below US $30,000. You don’t usually come up with an arbitrary number like $29,837. This is especially important if you use auto or algorithmic trading).

Over the past months, analysts have been divided on what happens next if bitcoin breaks the US $30,000 mark. Some believe it would trigger more dip buying and eventually lifting the price toward $34,000-$40,000 while others point to lack of demand due to low participation of the institutional investors.

For long-term investors who look at fundamentals rather than technicals,  it may not be a big worry.  Significant pullbacks have happened before in the cryptocurrency market, with bitcoin falling about 80% from its late 2017 highs at one point. Long-term crypto investors know well the space is and will continue to be volatile. That is actually the reason they are there.

Short Term

In the short-term, traders and speculators are keeping an eye on US $30,000 as any upside momentum is capped just a little above this level. This might simply means it is not a matter of “if” but “when” it will break this level down.

A break could exacerbate a quick fall back towards mid-US $20,000 as broader sentiment appears to be souring.  Altcoins would suffer similar percentage-point declines as they have done so far.

So far, the total market value of cryptocurrencies has dwindled to less than half of what it was near $2.5 trillion mark in April.

The total market cap of Bitcoin plunged below US $600 billion on Monday, just half of its once whopping US $1.2 trillion value.

On the positive side, even with the recent downturn, the cryptocurrency is still up more than 200% over the past 12 months. Perhaps, it is not the end of the world?

 

Risk Warning: Cryptocurrency is a unregulated virtual notoriously volatile asset with a high level of risk.  Any news, opinions, research, data, or other information contained within this website is provided for news reporting purposes as general market commentary and does not constitute investment or trading advice.