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After a dry and hotter than usual summer, most of Victoria will face an increased risk of fire over the coming months, according to the Australian Seasonal Bushfire Outlook for Autumn released today.
A lack of significant rainfall, extreme heat and high fuel loads were a major contributor to the bushfires across large parts of Victoria during January and this elevated risk is set to continue well into autumn.
The outlook for autumn is again drier than normal, with forecast warmer than average maximum daytime and overnight temperatures.
These warmer, drier conditions may further increase fuel availability across already parched grasslands, forests, woodlands and heathlands – making it easier for fires to start and spread.
A normal bushfire risk this autumn is only forecast for East Gippsland and the Mallee. East Gippsland, including Bairnsdale and Orbost, has had consistent rain in spring and summer and the Mallee, around Mildura and Kerang, has reduced fuel loads. However, even in areas with normal bushfire potential, fast running fires are possible on dry and windy days in areas with dry or cured vegetation.
The extreme conditions may delay planned burning in much of the state, but it may also increase opportunities to target areas not typically available for planned burning during April and May.
Emergency services will continue to monitor conditions to identify key risk areas leading into the autumn period.
Victoria remains well prepared for the potential of fires, with aircraft positioned across the state to support dedicated volunteer and career firefighters on the ground.
The Australian Seasonal Bushfire Outlook for Autumn is developed by the Australasian Fire and Emergency Service Authorities Council and supported by the Bureau of Meteorology along with state and territory fire and land managers.
It's important for communities to understand their local risks. Keep up to date with the Fire Danger Ratings on the VicEmergency app and VicEmergency website.
Quotes attributable to Deputy Emergency Management Commissioner, Brett Boatman
'Our long-term drying trend continues with many parts of Victoria recording below average rain and some no rain at all during January.
'With these drier than normal conditions expected to continue through autumn, we all need to remain vigilant about the potential for fires.
"Be prepared, understand your local risks, use the VicEmergency app and stay tuned to your local emergency broadcaster.'
Quotes attributable to Country Fire Authority Acting Chief Officer, Alen Slijepcevic
'While conditions remain dry with little rain forecast in certain parts of the state over coming months, the fire risk will continue but our crews are ready and will adapt to changes as they develop through autumn.
'Victorians should continue to maintain their properties and stay informed of their local risks so they can take action to protect their families in the event of a fire.'
Quotes attributable to Forest Fire Management Victoria Deputy Chief Fire Officer, Fiona Dunstan
'The expected warmer maximum temperatures are likely to delay the start of planned burning across most of the state, except for East Gippsland, during autumn.
'As soon as favourable weather and forest conditions arrive, we'll make sure all available resources are delivering planned burning, including in areas that are often too wet in typical autumn.
'With the dry conditions continuing, campfire safety is critical. Check whether a Total Fire Ban has been declared via VicEmergency before lighting a fire. If you do, manage it safely and fully extinguish it with water, never soil.'
"As soon as favourable weather and forest conditions arrive, we'll make sure all available resources are delivering planned burning, including in areas that are often too wet in typical autumn."
Quotes attributable to Fire Rescue Victoria Deputy Commissioner Operations Central, South and East, Costa Katsikis
'As we move into autumn, most Victorians still face an increased risk of grass and bushfires due to the cumulative effects of hotter weather and lower rainfall.
'Given these conditions everyone should keep in mind that these fires can start, take hold and move very quickly posing a threat to life and property.
'We're asking everyone to stay mindful of potential fire risks near their homes and local area, whether urban or regional, and to keep an up-to-date plan of what to do if a fire starts.'
Quotes attributable to Victorian State Emergency Services Chief Officer Operations, Alistair Drayton
'We know weather conditions shift quickly across Victoria. As well as fires, it's also important people are storm smart.
'We encourage all Victorians to consider how they can ready themselves and their properties, not just fires, but for other emergencies, such as floods and storms, including preparing an emergency kit with food and water, a torch and medicines.'
