Let's begin with a look at the thunderstorm outlook maps starting off with Friday. And we can see that severe thunderstorms are possible for large parts of the country, but if you zoom in to eastern Australia, we can see these areas in green, show where thunderstorms are possible and they include Victoria, South Australia, New South Wales and inland parts of Queensland. This does include Melbourne, Adelaide, Canberra as well as Sydney. We also have these areas in yellow where severe thunderstorms are possible through the day. This includes for the north western slopes of New South Wales into southern inland Queensland and a large swathe across central Australia. So these are areas we could see damaging wind gusts with thunderstorms.
As we head into Saturday thunderstorms peak as they move over the East coast. We can see areas of severe thunderstorms are possible all the way from southern New South Wales and into southern parts of Queensland. So let's zoom in and have a closer look at that area through there. The area in yellow does show that severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday from Wollongong up to Sydney. Newcastle in the Hunter, the mid-north coast and into southern interior parts of Queensland. For Brisbane, though, thunderstorms are more likely through the western suburbs out towards Toowoomba and also the Darling Downs. Severe thunderstorms could bring heavy rainfall, damaging winds as well as large hail. But we also do have an area of red where severe thunderstorm activity is likely. That extends from Newcastle and the Hunter up into the mid north coast and then southern parts of the Table Lands. Through this area in red we may also see the additional risk of destructive wind gusts, which can cause significant damage.
On Sunday we do see a much calmer day. Thunderstorms are still possible for North-east New South Wales and eastern Queensland, but at this stage we're not expecting any severe activity. And over the last few days and weeks, many communities have seen severe thunderstorms push through, bringing damage as well as disruptions. But a bit of a reminder of what severe thunderstorms can bring. Large hail can cause damage to vehicles and property. Heavy rainfall and strong winds can cause travel disruptions and delays and make driving dangerous. While we can also see disruptions to power as well as utilities, so do make sure you have the latest information and warnings as we head into the weekend.
So what is actually driving all this? Looking at the satellite we can see a cold front, a low pressure system and a warm front moving through eastern Australia overnight Thursday and into Friday morning. Ahead of the cold front, we do see cloud building with very unsettled conditions and that low pressure system and warm front are bringing areas of rain to South Australia, Victoria and in particular Tasmania.
As we head into the models, we do see those systems moving through to the east through the rest of Friday. Rain continues across Tasmania, as well as through parts of Victoria and behind that cold front, very cold air moving up from the south. Ahead of that cold front, though, we do see showers and thunderstorms developing as we head into Friday afternoon, and into the evening and also Friday night. We do see those systems continuing to move towards the coast and still remaining quite wet across the southern flank of that low pressure system.
On Saturday we do see the systems moving further towards the east. Rain continues in the far southeast, but into Saturday afternoon and evening we can see shower and thunderstorm activity really starting to peak across New South Wales and also into southern parts of Queensland. Across the south though a bit of a different story with that low pressure system. We will see moderate rainfall totals for parts of Gippsland and that may cause river and creek rises, as well as the potential for isolated minor flooding. More broadly, though, for Tasmania, Victoria and South Australia, it will be a very cold day on Saturday as well as very windy. Maximum temperatures up to 12 degrees below average, with a very sharp wind chill coming through.
On Saturday we do see those showers and storms pushing off the New South Wales coast, still remaining quite wet across eastern Victoria, and showers and storms continuing across eastern parts of Queensland. And that's really the story as we head into Sunday. Those systems move off the coast and she has the storms really start to get going across eastern and central parts of Queensland, and then a bit of a rain band developing off the east coast of Queensland, as that cold front connects into a bit of tropical moisture.
Finally, let's have a look at the total rainfall forecast out until Sunday night. The focus is across southern Victoria and Tasmania. We can see here generally rainfall totals between 20 to 50mm or so, including through parts of Gippsland and towards Melbourne, particularly the eastern suburbs of Melbourne and through Tasmania we could also see between 20 to 40mm of rainfall. Across the east coast though, a little bit more hit and miss. It will depend on where we do see this thunderstorms form, but right under thunderstorms we may see flash flooding develop.
So with the potential for rain as well as severe thunderstorms as we head into the weekend do make sure you have the latest information, forecasts and warnings from the Bureau, including for our website and our app.
