Flawed Assumptions Cast Doubt on Dodgy 45% Modelling

New Australia Institute analysis of the BAEconomics modelling by Brian Fisher, released today shows that it is based on numerous flawed assumptions which cast serious doubt to the validity of the claims contained.

Key problems with BAEconomics model:

  • Appears to assume renewable energy technology does not improve over time, while our aging coal fleet gets more efficient every year.
  • Firming costs for renewable energy up to $200 MWh when the Government-owned Snowy 2.0 is offering contracts at $70MWh
  • No details around electric vehicles and how they will shape transport emissions.

“While there is legitimate debate on the best climate policy for Australia, it is important that information is factual,” said Richie Merzian, Climate & Energy Program Director at The Australia Institute.

“The Energy Minister has the resources of the entire public service. It is strange that he prefers the work of a consultant to the Minerals Council to that of his own department.”

“The modelling assumes firming costs for renewable energy could be as high as $200 MWh when the Government-owned Snowy 2.0 is offering firmed renewable contracts at $70MWh,” said Rod Campbell, Research Director at The Australia Institute.

“There is simply no evidence for the claim that a 45% emissions target would be an ‘economy wrecking target.’ In fact, Australia Institute research finds that Australia can reduce emissions by far more than 45% with minimal impact on the economy.”

/Public Release. View in full here.