Grim 2024 Predicted for Ukraine, Global Impact Expected

Courtesy of ANU

Two years after Russia's full-scale invasion on 24 February 2022, Ukraine's resistance remains remarkable. Confident initial predictions of a swift Russian triumph were repeatedly proven wrong. Instead, Russia's military was beset by poor logistics, corruption, a sclerotic command structure and an inability to counter Ukrainian tactics.

Kyiv's armed forces successfully prevented a rash Russian attempt to seize the Ukrainian capital and then stopped the entire Russian advance. After six months, they began turning the Russian invaders back, recapturing swathes of territory around Kharkov in the north and Kherson in the south.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was feted by Western leaders, parlaying his personal popularity into commitments of military aid and insisting Ukraine could prevail with a more sophisticated arsenal.

Yet for all these early successes, the war soon devolved into repeated human waves of attacks by Russian conscripts against well-defended Ukrainian positions. The slow drip-feed of Western weapons forced Kyiv to significantly delay its 2023 counteroffensive. This gave Russia's armed forces time to design deep and elaborate defensive fortifications, minefields and tank traps.

Indeed, thanks largely to Russian efforts, Ukraine is now the most heavily mined country in the world.

Once Ukraine's counteroffensive commenced, its forces made little headway and took heavy losses, especially given the lack of air support.

Facing personnel and equipment shortages, Zelensky dramatically fired his military chief, Valerii Zaluzhny, earlier this month, opting for a new strategy that seeks to build Ukrainian strength while blocking further Russian advances.

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