Heavy Rain, Flood Risk Hit SE Queensland

There is some variation in terms of the rainfall totals we're expecting across this warning area, so I'll break it into a north and southern part of the warning. Through those northern parts of the warning area across the central interior, we're looking at six-hourly rainfall totals of 40 mm to 60 mm today, with isolated six-hourly rainfall totals up to 90 mm or so.

But the further south we go, the higher those rainfall totals are expected to be. Through the southern extent of our warning area, we are looking at six-hourly rainfall totals of 70 mm to 120 mm, with isolated six-hourly rainfall totals up to 180 mm or so. This is likely to continue today going into tomorrow.

If we take a closer look at those southern parts of the warning, we can see that they do cover parts of the Maranoa and Warrego, Darling Downs and Granite Belt, parts of the Central Highlands and Coalfields, southern parts of Capricornia, the entirety of the Wide Bay-Burnett district and parts of the south-east coast, including the Sunshine Coast and some Brisbane suburbs. These areas are most likely to see some of those highest rainfall totals today going into tomorrow.

It's all being driven by a low pressure trough flowing through the area, dragging in significant moisture from across the depth of the atmosphere that's acting as fuel for rain and storms through these parts.

Through the later part of today we're also possibly going to see a low pressure system developing off the south-east coast, which will further help to draw in moisture and direct it up through the Sunshine Coast and into the Wide Bay-Burnett.

Now near and to the north of the trough, thunderstorms are also going to play a significant part in how high those rainfall totals might be. Where storms develop, that's where we could see some of the biggest rainfall numbers.

There is even a risk of locally intense rainfall across parts of the south-east through the next couple of days, dependent on where those storms develop. If we do see those really high rainfall rates emerging, we will issue further warnings. To the south of the trough, we're more likely to see widespread rain areas.

As you can see, this weather is really dependent on the trough itself. How far north or south it moves will determine where we see the highest rainfall totals and how high those rainfall totals may be.

As we move into this evening, we're likely to see some of the heaviest rain developing, particularly across parts of the Sunshine Coast, pushing up into the Wide Bay-Burnett and southern Capricornia. Another low pressure system is expected to move in from the west, pulling across the Central Highlands and Coalfields. This is actually the remnants of the tropical low that crossed the coast some days ago.

This heavy rain is expected to continue through Monday morning. Through Monday afternoon, we'll continue to see that wet weather, but this weather system will gradually start to pull towards the coast and then off the coast overnight into Tuesday morning. That means by the time most people wake up on Tuesday morning, we're left with much patchier showers across that stretch of coast.

So exactly how much rainfall are we expecting over the coming days? Well, taking a look at our rainfall totals from midnight last night out to Tuesday morning, we can see very widespread moderate to locally heavy falls are expected, and that includes across parts of the Central West, Central Highlands and Coalfields, Wide Bay-Burnett, southern Capricornia and parts of the Sunshine Coast too.

Of course, those highest rainfall totals will depend on where that trough moves, but they're most likely to areas north of Brisbane at this point in time. It's also worth noting that what you're looking at here is just one model's idea of how much we might see in the rain gauges. The actual rainfall totals we end up getting might be a little different depending on where that trough moves and where we see storms developing.

Now with so much rain on the way over the next couple of days, we are expecting significant impacts. Firstly, flash flooding is going to be a real risk over the next couple of days. The ground is already wet in many of these areas and the rain will have nowhere to go. Flash flooding could emerge very quickly, leading to dangerous driving conditions and road closures through the south-east.

We're also possibly going to see damage to infrastructure and property over the next few days as that rain continues to build. With several days in a row of heavy falls, we are likely to see riverine flooding developing through these same areas as well. We have issued a number of Flood Warnings already. Rivers are rising in some parts and they're expected to rise in others.

As you can see, we've already got Minor to Moderate Flood Warnings in place for areas between the Sunshine Coast up to Gladstone or so, mainly across the Wide Bay-Burnett district.

These come in on top of much broader areas of Flood Warnings and Flood Watches across the state of Queensland. You can see we've got those orange and green Minor to Moderate Flood Warnings all the way up the east coast, as well as significant long-term warnings thanks to the flooding in the west of the state.

The purple colours you see in between indicate areas of Flood Watch, and they cover much of northern and eastern Queensland. The Flood Watch gives us an indication of where we might see that riverine flooding emerging over the coming days. Now with the rain continuing to fall, it is likely we will see these areas extended or upgraded over the coming days. So staying on top of these warnings is essential for the start of the new week.

As always, you can find the latest forecasts and warnings via the Bureau's website and the BOM Weather app. Stay safe and we'll catch you next time.