Christmas is the time when Australia's population is on the move. Many travel to celebrate the holidays with family and friends, and enjoy a well-earned break. This means roads are busy, tourist hotspots are teeming and our focus shifts to gifts, meals and winding down.
Authors
- Hamish Clarke
Senior Research Fellow, The University of Melbourne
- Sarah McColl-Gausden
Research fellow, The University of Melbourne
- Tori Reynolds
Environmental Fire Risk Analyst, School of Agriculture, The University of Melbourne
- Trent Penman
Professor, The University of Melbourne
Unfortunately, December and January are also the peak time for bushfires for much of the country. Already there have been damaging fires in the south-west and south-east of Australia at the start of December. There were 35 houses lost across New South Wales and Tasmania, and the tragic death of a fire fighter in Buladelah, NSW.
As summer heats up and vegetation dries out and becomes fuel, we can expect more fires across the southern half of the country.
Whether you are travelling or staying at home, you need to know where risks are greatest in order to prepare. The short answer is: anywhere there is vegetation - be it grass, forests or shrubland - there is a risk of fire.
The Australia and New Zealand Council for Fire and Emergency Services recently released their seasonal bushfire outlook for summer 2025, which points to a heightened risk in south-western Western Australia, central northern NSW and southern and western Victoria.
Coastal areas of NSW were not predicted to be above average risk of fires. However, a recent heat wave rapidly dried fuels, making them available to burn and resulting in fires. Risk can escalate quickly.
Why risks increase
For bushfires to occur, four key elements must align:
1. fuel - abundance of live and dead vegetation such as grasses, shrubs and trees
2. dry conditions - a lack of rain and decline in soil moisture that makes fuel susceptible to burning
3. ignition source - lightning or human sources including machinery, campfires and arson
4. fire-promoting weather - low humidity, high temperatures, high winds.
At this time of year, all four elements are present more often and more intensely across much of southern Australia. And climate change is loading the dice by increasing heat extremes, drying fuel rapidly and lengthening the fire season.
But humans also shape fire risk. Where and how we build, and how prepared we are all influence whether a fire becomes a disaster.
Gather fire info
Wherever you travel over the summer season, the best thing to do is be prepared for fire. Ideally, this builds your understanding and confidence, rather than anxiety, because we know Christmas is stressful for many people.
Knowledge is the key. Understanding the environment you are in and what fires are in the landscape is crucial. Most states have apps for mobile phones, such as VicEmergency or Hazards Near Me , and websites that alert you to dangerous weather and the occurrence of fires in the landscape.
These apps often allow you to set alerts to tell you when something is happening within a given area around your location. Having alerts saves you from having to constantly check your phone, and lets you enjoy the summer break.
ABC radio is the national emergency broadcaster . Be sure to know the frequency of the local ABC station so you can tune in and get up-to-date information.
Be prepared
Have a plan of what you might do if a fire occurs in the area. Think about where you are staying and any nearby areas of flammable vegetation. A house adjacent to the forest is likely to be at greater risk than a house in the middle of a coastal town.
There are many risk factors related to homes and gardens , including building materials and design, the presence of fuel and proximity to neighbours.
You should also consider where you would go if a fire affects the area you are staying. Most towns have a neighbourhood safer place . This is a point to congregate if a fire breaks out. Take note of where the local rural fire brigade is, which are an invaluable source of local knowledge during emergencies.
Power can be lost during bigger fires, meaning you (or the local takeaway) won't be able to cook dinner or make coffee in the morning (a good reason to brush up on cold brew expertise). Similarly, the online systems that run ATMs and EFTPOS will go down so bring cash to buy necessities and support local businesses. And try to keep your car full of fuel, or charged. Petrol pumps rely on electricity to run, so in a blackout you can't get the fuel needed to leave an area.
Importantly, never try to outrun a fire. Many people have died after misjudging the speed of a fire and their ability to escape from it. Good decisions are not made when you are stressed and afraid.
So make plans early and consult the local fire brigade if you are unsure. They would much rather help make a safety plan than have to deal with the consequences of a bad decision.
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Hamish Clarke receives funding from the Westpac Scholars Trust (HC) and the Australian Research Council via an Industry Fellowship IM240100046. He is a member of the International Association of Wildland Fire, the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society and the Australian Science Communicators, and a member of the Oceania Regional Committee of the IUCN Commission on Ecosystem Management.
Sarah McColl-Gausden has received funding from the Victorian Department of Energy, Environment and Climate Action including through the Integrated Forest Ecosystem Research program. She is a member of the Ecological Society of Australia.
Tori Reynolds currently receives funding from the NSW Bushfire and Natural Hazards Research Centre through the NSW Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water (DCCEEW). She has previously received research funding from the same department. She is a member of the Ecological Society of Australia. She works closely with Australian fire and land-management agencies in an applied research capacity.
Trent Penman receives funding from Natural Hazards Research Australia, the Australian Research Council and various state fire agencies and electricity network providers.