IMF Approves 48-Month ECF Deal for Chad

  • The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) approved today a 48-month arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) in the amount of SDR 455.65 million (about US$625 million or 325 percent of quota) for Chad. The Board's decision allows for an immediate first disbursement equivalent to SDR 28.04 million (about US$38.5 million).
  • The 48-month financing package will support the objectives of the authorities' National Development Plan 2025-2030 by ensuring fiscal sustainability, creating fiscal space for key development projects, increasing targeted social spending, and improving governance and the business climate. It will also help meet Chad's balance of payment needs at a time of acute financing pressures.
  • The ECF arrangement is expected to catalyze additional external financing from development partners.

Washington, DC: The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) today approved a 48-month ECF arrangement for Chad, in the amount of SDR 455.65 million (about US$625 million, or 325 percent of the country's quota), to support the authorities' economic and structural reforms, and address the country's protracted balance of payment needs. The Executive Board's decision allows for an immediate first disbursement of SDR 28.04 million (about US$ 38.5million).

The new arrangement supports the objectives of the authorities' National Development Plan 2025-2030 across three main pillars. First, it will aim at ensuring sustainable fiscal policy and creating fiscal space to finance key development projects. Second, the program aims to support the authorities' objectives of inclusion, notably through an increase in targeted social spending to lift development outcomes. Third, the program will contribute to improvements in governance and business climate to create the conditions for more balanced and stronger economic growth. The program will also contribute to the regional effort to ensure external stability for the Economic and Monetary Community of Central Africa (CEMAC) through meeting Chad's balance of payments financing needs at a time when the country is facing substantial financing pressures from more volatile oil prices, unprecedented refugees and food security crises, in the context of diminishing donor support and a continued funding squeeze.

Following the Executive Board discussion, Mr. Clarke, Deputy Managing Director and Chair, made the following statement:

"Chad faces formidable challenges stemming from humanitarian, climate, and security shocks, compounded by volatile oil prices and declining official development assistance. These factors have heightened balance-of-payment needs, strained public finances, and intensified social and humanitarian pressures, particularly with the unprecedented influx of refugees from Sudan. Despite these challenges and following the conclusion of the political transition in early 2025, the authorities have demonstrated a strong commitment to macroeconomic stability and reform, with the adoption of an ambitious National Development Plan for 2025–2030.

"The authorities' program, supported by a new four-year arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility, aims to address balance-of-payment needs, achieve macroeconomic stability, and support inclusive growth. The program is anchored on three pillars: ensuring fiscal sustainability while creating fiscal space for development projects; expanding targeted social spending to address widespread poverty; and strengthening governance and the business climate to foster private sector development.

"Steadfast implementation of fiscal reforms will be critical to create fiscal space for the implementation of the National Development Plan while ensuring sustainability. In this regard, mobilizing non-oil revenues—notably through targeted tax increases, streamlining tax exemptions, and the digitalization of tax administration—will be important. Efforts to contain non-priority spending through streamlining the wage bill, reducing the use of emergency spending procedures, and strengthening public financial management and fiscal transparency will also be needed.

Reforms to enhance social inclusion and governance are essential to foster stronger and more balanced economic growth. In this respect, the authorities' plans to expand biometric identification, and the unified social registry are critical to deliver effective social protection. Governance reforms, notably in the oil sector, are needed to enhance transparency and accountability. The authorities' request for an IMF Governance Diagnostic and their commitment to publish an audit on oil revenues and to improve oversight of state-owned enterprises are important steps in this direction."

Table 1. Chad: Selected Economic and Financial Indicators, 2023-30

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

Act.

Prel.

Proj.

Proj.

Proj.

Proj.

Proj.

Proj.

(Annual percentage change, unless otherwise indicated)

Real Economy

GDP in chained volumes

5.0

3.5

3.3

3.6

3.3

3.7

4.0

4.1

Oil GDP

7.4

-1.2

-0.7

4.1

2.3

3.2

2.3

1.3

Non-oil GDP

4.3

4.6

4.2

3.5

3.5

3.8

4.2

4.4

GDP deflator

-4.2

2.8

0.2

1.5

1.9

1.9

2.0

1.9

Consumer price index (annual average)

2.3

5.1

4.0

3.6

3.1

3.0

3.0

3.0

Oil prices

Brent (US$/barrel)1

82.3

79.9

67.7

63.3

63.7

64.7

65.6

66.4

Chadian price (US$/barrel)2

77.8

78.2

65.3

60.6

60.7

61.7

62.6

63.4

Oil production for exports (millions of barrels)

51.5

50.8

50.4

52.7

53.9

55.8

57.2

58.0

Exchange rate CFAF per US$ (period average)

606.5

606.2

Money and Credit

Net foreign assets3

-0.9

28.1

0.9

0.6

0.0

0.1

0.9

2.3

Net domestic assets3

15.4

-11.2

11.1

9.4

8.0

7.7

6.6

5.0

Of which: net claims on central government

4.5

0.3

-0.8

-2.1

-0.5

1.6

0.4

-0.2

Of which: credit to private sector

4.9

7.1

4.1

3.6

3.4

3.4

3.5

3.7

Broad money

14.6

17.0

12.0

10.0

8.0

7.8

7.5

7.3

Velocity (non-oil GDP/broad money)

4.2

3.9

3.7

3.6

3.5

3.5

3.4

3.4

External Sector (valued in US dollars)

Exports of goods and services, f.o.b.

-5.9

3.1

-5.8

1.3

3.2

4.8

4.7

3.9

Imports of goods and services, f.o.b.

7.7

4.8

3.7

5.9

2.7

4.2

4.5

4.4

Overall balance of payments (percent of GDP)

0.5

0.4

-2.1

-2.6

-2.2

-0.9

-0.5

0.3

Current account balance, including official transfers (% of GDP)

1.6

1.0

-2.5

-3.5

-3.2

-3.2

-3.2

-3.4

Terms of trade

-13.0

10.9

-7.2

-3.4

-0.2

1.1

1.4

1.4

External debt (percent of GDP)4

16.7

17.2

17.9

20.2

22.1

21.7

21.4

20.9

NPV of external debt (percent of exports of goods and services)

43.5

45.2

50.2

56.4

60.4

59.2

58.6

58.0

(Percent of non-oil GDP, unless otherwise indicated)

Government Finance

Revenue and grants

19.1

20.2

21.2

18.8

19.3

19.3

19.2

19.4

Of which: oil revenue

11.5

9.3

8.6

6.0

6.1

6.3

6.0

5.9

Of which: non-oil revenue

6.9

8.7

9.4

9.3

9.6

9.7

9.8

10.0

Expenditure

20.9

22.7

22.7

21.6

21.8

20.6

20.1

20.1

Current

13.9

14.1

13.9

12.8

12.4

12.1

11.8

11.6

Capital

7.0

8.6

8.8

8.8

9.5

8.5

8.4

8.4

Non-oil primary balance (commitment basis, excl. grants)5

-11.5

-9.7

-6.8

-6.2

-5.6

-5.2

-4.8

-4.6

CEMAC reference overall balance (in percent of GDP)6

-4.5

-3.0

-1.4

-1.2

-2.2

-1.9

-1.8

-1.5

Overall fiscal balance (incl. grants, commitments basis)

-1.8

-2.5

-1.5

-2.9

-2.6

-1.3

-0.9

-0.6

Total debt (in percent of GDP)4

32.3

32.8

33.0

34.2

34.7

33.3

32.0

31.3

Of which: domestic debt

15.6

15.6

15.1

14.0

12.6

11.6

10.6

10.4

Memorandum items:

Nominal GDP (billions of CFA francs)

11,303

12,025

12,452

13,089

13,788

14,576

15,452

16,383

Of which: non-oil GDP

9,232

9,969

10,748

11,442

12,100

12,804

13,613

14,497

Nominal GDP (billions of US$)

18.6

19.8

20.4

21.6

22.7

24.0

25.5

27.0

Sources: Chadian authorities; and IMF staff estimates and projections.

1WEO projections for Brent crude oil price.

2Chadian oil price is Brent price minus quality discount.

3Changes as a percent of broad money stock at the beginning of period.

4Central government, including government-guaranteed debt.

5Total revenue excluding grants and oil revenue, minus total expenditure excluding net interest payments and foreign-financed investment.

6The reference fiscal balance (i.e. the overall budget balance minus 20 percent of oil revenue and minus 80 percent of the oil revenue in excess of the average observed during the 3 previous years) is a CEMAC convergence criteria and must exceed -1.5 percent of GDP.

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