IMF Concludes 2025 Talks, Approves Reviews for Equatorial Guinea

• The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded today the 2025 Article IV consultation with Equatorial Guinea. IMF Management approved in June the combined first and second reviews under the Staff Monitored Program (SMP) and a 12 month SMP extension.
• Equatorial Guinea registered a mild economic recovery in 2024, but the economy is projected to grow weakly and a drain on regional reserves is expected to continue in the medium term as hydrocarbon production declines. The banking sector is showing clear signs of improvement.
• Performance under the program has been strong, with significant reforms implemented and a substantial fiscal adjustment that met the SMP conditionality. However, contrary to longstanding commitments, the authorities decided not to publish asset declarations of public officials. The program extension will provide the authorities with an opportunity to complete an alternative governance reform measure aimed at strengthening transparency in the extractive sector.

Washington, DC: The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) completed the Article IV Consultation for Equatorial Guinea. [1] IMF Management approved the completion of the first and second reviews and a 12-month extension of the Staff Monitored Program (SMP) for Equatorial Guinea on June 25, 2025. The authorities have consented to the publication of the Staff Report prepared for this consultation. [2]

Equatorial Guinea registered a mild economic recovery in 2024, growing by 0.9 percent following a strong contraction in 2023. However, non-hydrocarbon GDP growth slowed in 2024 to 1.3 percent, and the economy is expected to grow only modestly in the medium term as hydrocarbon production declines. Inflationary pressures have persisted, with inflation increasing from 2.5 percent in 2023 to 3.4 percent in 2024.

The banking sector showed clear signs of improvement in 2024 but remains undercapitalized. The average capital adequacy ratio of the system is marginally below the regulatory minimum, but substantially higher than at the end of 2022.

The authorities' substantial fiscal adjustment in 2024 improved the non-hydrocarbon primary balance from -22.3 percent of non-hydrocarbon GDP in 2023 to -17.0 percent in 2024. Public debt decreased from 39.1 percent to 36.4 percent of GDP. Equatorial Guinea's contribution to foreign reserves at the regional central bank remained negative in 2024, following a reserve loss in 2023. The authorities planned further fiscal adjustment will aim to keep public debt below 50 percent of GDP despite the projected decline in hydrocarbon revenues and restore external balance in the medium term.

The authorities have implemented substantial reforms over the past year in the context of the SMP. The significant fiscal adjustment in 2024 helped initiate stabilization of the public debt dynamics and restoration of external balance. They enacted a new tax law that broadens the tax base, prepared a plan to phase out fuel subsidies, began making payments under a new arrears clearance strategy and reformed the customs administration. The authorities took concrete steps toward restoring the health of the financial sector. In an effort to improve governance and transparency, they also developed an AML/CFT strategy and published contracts in the extractive sector and an audit of spending following the accidental explosions in Bata in 2021.

The authorities' policies have allowed them to meet almost all of the SMP's quantitative conditionality as well as complete actions related to most of their structural reform program commitments in the areas of governance, financial sector development and structural fiscal policy. The authorities missed two structural benchmarks following their decision not to publish the asset declarations of public officials. The 12-month SMP extension will afford the authorities the opportunity to complete an alternative governance reform measure – the publication of an extractive industry transparency report in line with EITI standards – while continuing to implement their broader reform agenda.

Executive Board Assessment [3]

Executive Directors agreed with the thrust of the staff appraisal. Directors welcomed the authorities' progress on their reform agenda under the Staff‑Monitored Program, noting its 12‑month extension. They stressed, however, that the macroeconomic environment remains challenging, particularly because of the continued decline in hydrocarbon production that is placing sustained pressure on fiscal and external balances. Directors urged steadfast reform implementation going forward, particularly to address long‑standing and serious governance challenges, which would help economic diversification and lay the foundation for private sector‑led, sustainable, and inclusive growth.

Directors welcomed the authorities' decision to anchor public debt to preserve debt sustainability and restore external balance. They emphasized that this will require a gradual and sustained fiscal adjustment in the face of declining hydrocarbon revenues. Directors welcomed the commitment to achieving the 2025 budget and stressed the need for continued efforts to mobilize domestic non‑hydrocarbon revenues and strengthen fiscal institutions. Improving public financial management remains essential. Directors called for ambitious social spending reform to improve social outcomes and boost human capital development. They stressed the importance of approving the social protection law to enable the building of comprehensive social safety nets.

Directors commended the progress made toward restoring the health of the financial sector—including the completion of the audit of the systemic public bank and the creation of an arrears clearance strategy—but noted that vulnerabilities remain. Directors highlighted the importance of obtaining approval from the regional banking supervisor for the arrears clearance plan, further strengthening private banks' balance sheets, and implementing the financial inclusion strategy.

Directors urged the authorities to redouble their efforts to substantially improve transparency and governance. They regretted the authorities' decision to step back from the long‑standing commitment to publish asset declarations of public officials, and many Directors urged the authorities to reconsider this option. Directors considered that the publication of an annual report on financial flows in the extractive sector could help demonstrate the authorities' commitment to address their governance deficit. They recommended further governance reforms to address issues highlighted in the 2019 governance diagnostic, including implementing the AML/CFT strategy. A predictable and transparent business environment with reliable and efficient application of laws is needed to create a level playing field that would attract domestic and foreign investment.

It is expected that the next Article IV consultation with Equatorial Guinea will be held on the standard 12‑month cycle.

[1] Under Article IV of the IMF's Articles of Agreement, the IMF holds bilateral discussions with members, usually every year. A staff team visits the country, collects economic and financial information, and discusses with officials the country's economic developments and policies. On return to headquarters, the staff prepares a report, which forms the basis for discussion by the Executive Board.

[2] Under the IMF's Articles of Agreement, publication of documents that pertain to member countries is voluntary and requires the member consent. The staff report will be shortly published on the www.imf.org/Countries/GNQ page.

[3] At the conclusion of the discussion, the Managing Director, as Chair of the Board, summarizes the views of Executive Directors, and this summary is transmitted to the country's authorities. An explanation of any qualifiers used in summings up can be found here: http://www.IMF.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm .