- An IMF staff team visited Guinea Bissau during April 2-10, 2025, to hold discussions on the 2025 Article IV consultation and on the economic policies that could underpin the eighth review of the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) arrangement.
- GDP growth is projected at around 5 percent in 2025, on the back of more favorable terms of trade and strong private investment. The authorities remain committed to narrowing the budget deficit to 3 percent of GDP, in line with the ECF program target.
- The team had productive discussions with the authorities. These discussions will continue during the upcoming IMF/World Bank Group Spring Meetings later in April, to agree on policies to support the completion of the eighth review of the ECF.
Washington, D.C.: A staff team from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) led by Niko Hobdari visited Bissau during April 2-10, 2025, to hold discussions on the 2025 Article IV consultation and on the economic policies to support the completion the of the eighth Review of the ECF arrangement [ [1] ] . The initial arrangement was approved by the IMF Executive Board for a total amount of SDR 28.4 million (about US$ 37.8 million) on January 30, 2023. The IMF Executive Board granted an augmentation of access of 40 percent of quota (SDR 11.36 million) on November 29, 2023.
At the conclusion of the mission, Mr. Hobdari issued the following statement:
"The IMF staff team had constructive and productive discussions with the Guinea Bissau authorities, who reaffirmed their strong commitment to the ECF program objectives.
"Guinea Bissau's economy remains resilient, despite a moderation of growth in 2024 to 4.7 percent from 5.2 percent in 2023, in part reflecting weaker cashew exports and weather shocks to agricultural production. More favorable terms of trade are expected in 2025, which should improve the external position and support economic growth. The budget deficit this year is expected to fall to 3 percent of GDP, in line with the ECF program target. While the economic outlook remains favorable, it is subject to significant domestic and external risks.
"The IMF staff team reiterated the necessity to continue implementing the reforms agreed under the ECF program to support fiscal consolidation efforts and put public debt on a firm downward trajectory. We underscored the importance of adhering to the 2025 budget appropriations to support macroeconomic stability, a necessary condition to build foundations for inclusive growth and resilience to shocks.
"The 2025 Article IV consultation discussions focused on policies aimed at supporting economic diversification to reduce dependency on cashew nuts, maintaining fiscal sustainability through domestic revenue mobilization, and boosting human capital and enhancing social protection, including an assessment of the spending levels and outcomes.
"Going forward, boosting domestic revenue mobilization and strengthening expenditure controls will be key to supporting fiscal consolidation and creating fiscal space for infrastructure and social spending. The authorities should also persevere with efforts to mitigate fiscal risks from the public utility company, improve cash and debt management, and enhance governance. Recent reforms in the energy sector are vital to support economic growth and should be pursued, including to diversify the energy mix and secure a backup source of power. The economy faces significant near-term risks in an electoral year and in the context of a challenging external environment characterized by a deepening of geopolitical and global trade fragmentation.
"The staff team is looking forward to continuing the discussions for the eighth review under the ECF arrangement during the upcoming IMF/World Bank Group Spring Meetings. We would like to thank the authorities and development partners for their open and candid discussions."
The IMF staff team met with H.E. President Sissoco Embaló, Prime Minister Barros, Minister of Finance Té, Minister of Economy, Planning and Regional Integration Sambu, Minister of Energy Casimiro, Minister of Transportation and Telecommunications Barbeiro, and BCEAO National Director Cassama. The team met with officials from the Ministries of Finance, Economy, Agriculture, Fisheries, Justice, Public Health, Public Works, the National Directorate of the BCEAO, the National Institute of Statistics and other officials. The staff team also met with representatives of public sector enterprises and key bilateral and international partners.
[1] The Extended Credit Facility (ECF) provides financial assistance to countries with protracted balance of payments problems. It supports countries' economic programs aimed at moving toward a stable and sustainable macroeconomic position consistent with strong and durable poverty reduction and growth. The ECF may also help catalyze additional foreign aid.
